End of crop year analysis

Jan 17, 2017

By comparing yields across your fields and farms, you can shape your production decisions for the next growing season

By Patrick Lynch
Farms.com

At the end of each crop year, you need to review final yields. You need to compare each farm/field to the other fields planted with the same crop.

Then start at the lowest yielding field. Make a list of the things that lowered yield on that farm/field. Be specific: rain, weed control, insects, disease or unknown. The objective is to solve the problem and change the yield the next time that same crop is on that farm/field.

Dry corn in field
Photo: stacey_newman/iStock/Getty Images Plus photo

I once heard of a farmer in western Canada who bought three quarters every year and sold one. Generally, he sold the lowest-yielding quarter. Other reasons to sell included distance from the rest of the land in the operation.

You cannot be sentimental about land if you are farming for profit. If for some reason a farm is consistently lower yielding, get rid of it. The reason may be something as simple as this farm has different soil type than the rest of your land. Tillage and other seeding equipment that work on most of your land is just not suited to the low-yielding piece of land. It is more economical to get rid of that land than to set up tillage and planting for a different soil type.

Video: 2025 USDA December Crop Report a “Dud” + Trump $12 Billion U.S. Farm Aid

The USDA December crop report was friendly corn, neutral soybeans and bearish wheat. The USDA did surprise and increase the 25/26 U.S. corn export forecast to a new record high at 3.2 billion bushels now up 12% vs. last year vs. prior at +9% vs. the export pace to date up 30% the best in 10 years even higher than 20/21! The USDA left the 25/26 U.S. soybean export pace unchanged at 1.635 billion bushels. Higher global wheat supplies will remain a weight and headwind for wheat into year end and start of 2026.
Mexico is now the #1 buyer of U.S. corn, soybeans (usually China), wheat and pork!
USDA also released its long-term early projections but expect more changes by February of 2026.
Trump announces a $12 billion U.S. farmer aid package to be paid out by February 28, 2026. This helps no one but the ag banks, farm equipment companies, seed and fertilizer companies. It does prevent more farmer bushels from being sold near-term but is not bullish grain prices long-term. The Trump administration should focus on increasing U.S. domestic demand and propping up grain futures so farmers can cover their higher costs, up since COVID of 2020.
The China U.S. soybean purchase tracker now stands at 4.521 mmt or 38% of the 12 mmt promised by China at year end or is it end of February or the growing season? Why the discrepancy vs. the fact sheet. The optics are poor for the Trump administration.
After surging to contract highs U.S. natural gas futures plunged over 30+% in just 5-trading days!
Silver traded to new record highs as the debasement and de dollarization trade continued but technicals remain overbought near-term.
Soybean futures remained in correction mode after the funds went record long futures on Nov. 19 +233,000 contracts but the $10.80 support should hold into year end when the fund profit taking/liquidation comes to an end from the year end, end of month and end of quarter selling.
The U.S. Fed cut interest rates for the 3rd time by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50 – 3.75% and they will only cut one more time in 2026 and once in 20267/ but when Powell is gone next April the replacement is willing to cut more aggressively and we could see U.S. interest rates fall to 2.0% very bullish for ag and stocks as it could reignite inflation into 2027.
After 2 months of being drier than normal in Brazil the rains have finally arrived for the 1st half of December, and a record crop is still in the cards but if this pattern continues and verifies it could start to delay the harvest. Argentina after being too wet has turned dry but they are too small, compared top Brazil in the grand picture.
The Canadian dollar surged to $0.73 after better-than-expected employment data with 180,000 new jobs in the past 3-months and 3rd quarter GDP at +2.6% but this could be short-lived.
The latest CFTC report as of 11-19-2025 reported a record long fund position in soybeans at +233,000 contracts when 2026 March soybean futures peaked on 11-19-25 at $11.724/bu.