Dr. Derrell Peel Makes His Market Predictions For The Coming Months, Considering Recent Reports

By Dr. Derrell Peel,
OSU Extension Livestock Market Economist

Yesterday, OSU Extension Livestock Market Economist Dr. Derrell Peel, gave his analysis of USDA’s November Cattle on Feed report. Today, he speaks with Farm Director Ron Hays again, this time incorporating his interpretation of the November report with the last few reports from this year, and from that trendline formulates for producers his outlook for the near future as we move into the new year.

“As an overall market level, you can make the argument probably that on a year-to-year basis, we’re still looking at an overall decrease in prices in 2017,” Peel surmises. “That said, given where we dropped to here recently in 2016, going into 2017, I see this as more of a sideways kind of a market.”

At its current level, Dr. Peel believes the market is still fairly supportable. Accounting for seasonality in his prediction, he proposes fed cattle prices will most likely finish out the year in a range near $105 give or take, perhaps a little stronger even. If so, he says this means prices could potentially peak up to $110-115 or higher during the spring.

All things considered, it has been a very unusual year for the feeder cattle market. Nonetheless, Dr. Peel says he still sees some buying opportunities for producers to take advantage of in middle to heavier weight cattle.