RICE: On the U.S. 2011/12 supply side, the all rice import projection is raised 0.5 million cwt to 20.5 million (in long-grain) based on the pace of imports as reported by the Census Bureau through January. Forecast beginning stocks and production are unchanged from a month ago.
On the use side, all rice domestic and residual use is estimated at 123.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million (in long-grain) from last month, and a decrease of 11 percent from the previous year record. The decrease in the 2011/12 domestic and residual use is based in part on the March 1 Rice Stocks report released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on March 30. NASS reported all rice stocks on a rough-equivalent basis at 112.9 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis), slightly higher than expected, and down 13 percent from a year earlier. Additionally, lower projected seed use of rice in 2012 and a downward trend in the brewers’ use of rice also supported a decrease in the domestic and residual use of rice.
The all rice 2011/12 export projection is raised 3.0 million cwt to 92.0 million as net sales for March picked up significantly, and totaled over 325,000 tons (product-weight basis), compared to less than 200,000 tons in February. The long-grain export forecast is raised 1.0 million cwt to 58.0 million, largely due to increased sales to Venezuela. The combined medium- and short-grain export projection is raised 2.0 million to 34.0 million primarily due to increased sales to Turkey and South Korea. Rough rice exports are projected at 32.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million from a month ago, and combined milled- and brown-rice are increased 2.0 million (rough-equivalent basis) to 60.0 million. An increase in food-aid announcements mainly to Africa also contributed to the larger export projection. All rice ending stocks are projected at 39.0 million cwt, 1.5 million below last month, and 9.5 million below the previous year. Projected long-grain ending stocks are lowered 0.5 million cwt to 24.1 million, and combined medium- and short-grain rice stocks are lowered 2.0 million cwt to 12.2 million.
The all rice 2011/12 season average farm price is forecast at $13.80 to $14.20 per cwt, down 10 cents on the low end and a decrease of 30 cents on the high end. The midpoint at $14.20 per cwt is down 20 cents per cwt from last month, but up $1.30 from a year ago. The long-grain price range is projected at $13.10 to $13.50 per cwt, down 10 cents on the low end and a decrease of 30 cents on the high end from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain price range is projected at $15.50 to $15.90 per cwt, and is narrowed 10 cents per cwt on each end of the range from a month ago.
Global 2011/12 rice production and consumption are lowered from a month ago, while trade and ending stocks are increased. World rice production is reduced 1.7 million tons to 463.7 million tons, still a record, largely due to lower projections for Burma, Colombia, Egypt, and Indonesia, which are partially offset by increased projections for Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam. Global consumption is reduced 4.1 million tons to 458.8 million, still a record, largely due to reductions for Burma, Egypt, India, Pakistan, and Thailand, partially offset by increases for China, EU-27, and Iran. Forecast global exports for 2011/12 are raised 0.8 million tons to 33.9 million tons, down nearly a million tons from record 2010/11. Projected imports are raised for China, Egypt, EU-27, and Indonesia. Forecast exports are raised for India, Vietnam, and the United States, and lowered for Burma, China, and EU-27. Global ending stocks are projected at 103.3 million tons, up nearly 3.0 million tons from last month, an increase of almost 5.0 million tons from 2010/11, and the largest since 2001/02. Burma, Indonesia, EU-27, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Thailand account for the bulk of the upward revision in global ending stocks.
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Source: USDA.