The 2011/12 U.S. cotton estimates reflect marginally lower domestic mill use
compared with last month. With no change in the production estimate, the total cotton supply
is unchanged. Domestic mill use is lowered 100,000 bales, reflecting lower than anticipated
activity in recent months. The export estimate is unchanged. Ending stocks are raised
100,000 bales to 3.8 million, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 26 percent. The forecast range for the
average price received by producers of 87 to 93 cents per pound is narrowed 1 cent on each
end.
The 2011/12 world cotton estimates include sharply higher supplies, due to higher beginning
stocks and production. Beginning stocks are raised 1.6 million bales, mainly reflecting
increased estimates for India’s production in 2009/10 and 2010/11 by the India Cotton
Advisory Board. World 2011/12 production is raised 505,000 bales due largely to higher
estimated production for Pakistan, which is based on ginning arrivals. Forecast world
consumption is reduced slightly, including decreases for Thailand, the United States, and
others. World trade is raised, due to a 1.0-million-bale increase in the import forecast for
China. World ending stocks are now forecast at 60.8 million bales, an increase of nearly 14
million bales from the beginning level. The stocks-to-consumption ratio of just over 55 percent
is sharply higher than the past two seasons and about equal to the 2008/09 level.
Back To Full Report Coverage