No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S. 2011/12 rice supply and use
balance sheet. On the use side, the export forecast is lowered 1 million cwt from a month ago
to 89 million—all in long-grain. The rough rice export projection is lowered 1 million cwt to 32
million, while forecast combined milled- and brown-rice exports are unchanged at 57 million.
The reduction in the export projection is due primarily to the slower-than-expected pace of
sales and shipments to date to mostly to Central America because of increased competition,
mainly from Brazil, and greater domestic supplies in some countries. The decrease in the
export forecast resulted in an increase in ending stocks of 1 million cwt to 39.5 million, down
almost 9 million from the previous year. Long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain
rice stocks are forecast at 21.6 million and 15.2 million cwt, respectively.
The projected U.S. average milling yield for 2011/12 is reduced to 70.00 percent, down 0.75
percentage points from last month, but still above 68.86 percent for 2010/11. The change is
based on data supplied by the Rice Millers’ Association of the USA Rice Federation for August
through December and on expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.
The 2011/12 long-grain, season-average price range is projected at $13.40 to $14.00 per cwt,
down 10 cents per cwt on the low end of the range and down 50 cents per cwt on the high end
with the midpoint down 30 cents. The combined medium- and short-grain price range is
projected at $15.20 to $15.80 per cwt, down 20 cents per cwt on both ends of the range with
the midpoint unchanged. The all rice season-average price range is forecast at $13.90 to
$14.50 per cwt, up 10 cents per cwt on the low end of the range, but down 30 cents per cwt on
the high end, and down 10 cents at the midpoint. The price projections are based on National
Agricultural Statistics Service reported prices through December and expected prices the
remainder of the marketing year. Global trading prices have been trending down in recent
weeks as competition for markets has been very keen with the addition of India as a large
exporter.
Global 2011/12 projections of rice production, consumption, trade and ending stocks are raised
from last month. The increase in the global rice production forecast is due mostly to increases
for India and the Philippines, which are partially offset by reductions for Brazil, Egypt,
Argentina, and the United States. The U.S. rice crop (milled equivalent basis) is lowered
slightly resulting entirely from the decrease in the average milling yield. India’s rice crop is
forecast at a record 102 million tons, up 2 million from last month due to an increase in both
harvested area and yield. According to the U.S. agricultural counselor in New Delhi, favorable
2011 monsoon rains coupled with overall good weather conditions in the major rice producing
areas supported higher kharif rice acreage and productivity. The Brazil rice crop is lowered
340,000 tons due to the effects of drought in Rio Grande do Sul, an important rice producing
State. Global exports are raised by 1.4 million tons, primarily due to an increase for India and
Egypt, which are partially offset by reductions for Thailand, Vietnam, and the United States.
Forecast India exports are raised 2 million tons to a record 6.5 million tons, while exports for
Thailand and Vietnam are lowered 500,000 and 200,000 tons, respectively. Forecast imports
are sharply raised for Egypt based on information from the agricultural counselor in Cairo.
Global ending stocks are up slightly from last month to 100.1 million tons mainly due to an
increase for the Philippines.
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