WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 32 million bushels lower. Projected feed and residual use is raised 35 million bushels reflecting higher-than-expected disappearance during the December-February quarter as indicated by the March 1 stocks.
Projected seed use is lowered 3 million bushels based on state level seedings as reported in the March 30 Prospective Plantings report. Projected exports for all wheat are unchanged as a 15-million-bushel increase for Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat is offset by the same size reduction for Hard Red Winter wheat. By-class shifts reflect the pace of sales and shipments to date and the increasing competitiveness of U.S. SRW wheat into Europe, Egypt, and Mexico. The projected range for the 2011/12 season-average farm price is narrowed 5 cents on both ends to $7.20 to $7.40 per bushel.
Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are lowered 0.5 million tons as reductions in beginning stocks for a number of countries more than offset a 0.3-million-ton increase in global production. Production for 2011/12 is raised for Syria, Pakistan, and South Africa, more than offsetting reductions for Egypt and Iran. Production changes this month have only a limited impact on global trade as world imports rise mostly on higher expected wheat feeding.
Global wheat imports for 2011/12 are projected 1.6 million tons higher. Imports are raised 0.5 million tons for China, 0.3 million tons each for Brazil and Mexico, 0.2 million tons each for Kenya, Morocco, the Philippines, South Africa, and Vietnam, and 0.1 million tons for Israel. Imports are lowered 0.3 million tons for Turkey, and 0.2 million tons each for Iran and Libya. Exports are raised 0.5 million tons each for Argentina and Brazil, 0.4 million tons for Uzbekistan, and 0.3 million tons each for Canada and Pakistan. A 1.0-million-ton reduction for Ukraine and a 0.2-million-reduction for Uruguay are partly offsetting.
Global wheat consumption for 2011/12 is raised 2.8 million tons on higher expected feed and residual usage. Wheat feeding is raised for China, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, the Philippines, and Vietnam. A revision to the India usage series, in order to better reflect residual losses, raises feed and residual use for the country by 2.9 million tons, but reduces food, seed, and industrial use by an offsetting amount. Global ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 3.3 million tons lower. Stocks are lowered for a number of countries with the biggest reductions for China, Iran, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, Japan, Canada, and Egypt. Partly offsetting are increases for Ukraine, Syria, and Jordan with smaller increases made for several other countries.
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Source: USDA.