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Corn and Soybean Profitability To Remain Strong.

Corn and soybean profitability will remain strong for U.S. producers over the next decade, thanks to steady demand and high prices, according to USDA’s 2012 - 2021 Long-Term Agricultural Outlook Projections. The report also projects long-run gains in producer returns that will be favorable for U.S. rice acres in the latter part of the projection period and a decline in U.S. cotton plantings over the next 10 years.

The U.S. crops sector will respond in the short term to relatively high prices in 2011-12, the report said. Planted area for eight major field crops in 2012 is projected to reach 251 million acres, the second-largest acreage level of the past 10 years.

Over the longer run, corn-based ethanol production in the United States is projected to slow, although the large expansion in recent years will keep corn use for ethanol high.

Prices are expected to fall from current high levels, but will remain historically high for many crops, USDA says. Strong demand and high prices will provide economic incentives to hold projected plantings near 245 million acres over much of the rest of the projection period.

Here is the link to the USDA Report.

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/archive_projections/USDAAgriculturalProjections2021.pdf

 

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USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.