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Dairy Defined: Inflation Is Hot. Dairy Stays Cooler.

It will come as no surprise to anyone reading this that inflation’s eating away at pocketbooks. The most recent Consumer Price Index is reporting the fastest retail price increases in costs in 40 years, with a hot economy and tight supply chains pushing up everything from cars to coffee.

And when consumers (and media outlets) focus their frustration, it tends to be on the prices that are most widely noticed. Gasoline’s the best example – what other product routinely posts its price on big signs next to highways? A gallon of milk is another one – when you’re in 94 percent of households, you can safely assume that a big part of the consuming public knows exactly what milk costs – and notices when it rises.

But before you pass unfair judgment on a jug of liquid goodness, a chart:

INFLATION

This is the most recent year-over-year Consumer Price Index covering overall inflation, food and beverage inflation, and dairy categories. A gallon of whole milk (the most popular variety in a jug) is going up, but it’s in line with other foods and beverages and lower than overall inflation. Subcategories fare even better. Cheese costs to consumers have barely budged. Ice cream remains an affordable (and relative to other categories, becoming even more so) treat. And yogurt, butter, et. al remain a compelling choice of affordable, high-quality nutrition for households.

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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.