Iowa and the rest of the Midwest are likely to be warmer and drier than normal in early winter, the National Weather Service projected on Thursday.
Forecasters said there is little evidence the drought will ease, though it might shift to the west. That would still leave the Midwest solidly in the drought, which has cut corn yields, threatened drinking water supplies and dried wetlands used by wildlife.
“The Midwest is looking at a milder and drier-than-normal winter,” at least through the end of January, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the weather service’s Climate Prediction Center.
The predictions are important to Iowa, where the amount of snowfall and the temperatures affect how much residents pay for heat, how many water pipes break, how much water is available for taps and for crops, the costs of plowing snow, the number of fish and pheasants outdoors enthusiasts find next year, and bookings for warm-weather vacations.
New weather-service forecast maps show Iowa in the area where conditions are leaning toward drier-than-usual.
While forecasters said Iowa probably will be warmer than usual, too, the maps show the eastern two-thirds of the state as a coin flip between warmer and cooler. The western third is in the warmer-than-usual zone.
Farmers are watching particularly closely because if Iowa’s fields don’t get significant rain by Dec. 1, next year’s corn seeds will get off to another thirsty start, state agriculture officials say.
Halpert said the forecast is fuzzier than normal because of the demise of El Niño a month ago. That warming of the Pacific Ocean can drive weather patterns.
El Niño could re-form, which would shift predictions for some parts of the country, but most likely would not significantly change the computer models for the Midwest, Halpert added.
It’s good to remember that these predictions are the weather service’s best guess, based on a variety of computer models. “These impacts are not guaranteed,” Halpert said. “The science of climate prediction is in its infancy.”
If the winter produces less snow, Des Moines could save some of its $900,000 worth of salt, said Pat Kozitza, interim public works director. Last year’s mild winter left the city with a $500,000 stockpile of salt, shaving spending for materials this year.
Dry conditions also save wear and tear on the roads, and equipment, Kozitza added.
Of course, if crews aren’t plowing, they can work on repairing streets, Kozitza said. And when spring comes around, the city has more workers on board because they aren’t taking time off to make up for all those hours spent plowing, Kozitza said.
There are other ramifications.
State geologist Robert Libra said some drinking water systems, especially in western Iowa, could face diminished water supplies from shallow aquifers if the drought lasts well into next year.
It will be a long time before Iowa’s soils shake off their thirst, even if the rains come, he added.
“We usually have water going into the ground and to the water table in spring and fall, when it’s wet and cool, and the crops and other vegetation aren’t grabbing it on the way down,” Libra said. “While we are getting some rain this fall, it’s not that great. So it’s up to spring.”
“Without good rains in spring, it could be a tough summer water-wise, as the demand for water will go back up then,” Libra said. It could take as much as a year to get back to normal groundwater levels, even if the drought wanes, he added.
Iowa is still eight to 10 inches below the typical statewide annual average of 37 inches.
State climatologist Harry Hillaker noted “the clock is ticking” on getting moisture in the ground before the freeze.
“After that, we’re dependent on rain in ... March and April,” Hillaker said. “It could happen, but we’ll need a lot.”
Click here to see more...