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Fall Feed Outlook: What To Expect As We Approach The Fall Cattle Run

Fall Feed Outlook: What To Expect As We Approach The Fall Cattle Run

By Brian R. Williams

There is no doubt that cattle feeders are closely watching the conditions of the corn and soybean crop in the field right now. Although many spring-calving producers will likely not market their calves for another month or two, we could see a few more feeder cattle than normal hit the market during August and September. Much of North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, and even a large portion of the Sandhills in Nebraska are in a severe drought or worse. I fully expect to see many producers in the drought-stricken Northern Plains begin to pull calves off of pasture and market them earlier than usual to relieve some of the stress on pastures and to cut down on the amount of hay that has to be fed. But, where will those cattle go? It is a bit too early for them to be sent south to go on wheat pasture. Producers in the Corn Belt are going to be more concerned with getting their crops out of the field than taking on stocker cattle in August or September. That really only leaves two places for them to go: back to grass further south or to the feedlot. The latest cattle on feed report has already shown evidence of the latter. June placements in South Dakota were up a whopping 67 percent from a year ago. While those were likely not spring-born calves, it does show signs that producers in the Northern Plains are trying to relieve some of the grazing pressure on the dry pastures. As we move forward, it is likely that Northern feedlots will be looking to pick up some discounted lightweight feeder calves and grow them on cheap corn…that is if the corn is actually cheap.

Looking at the current corn crop, it does look like we will have a smaller harvest than we did a year ago. Planted acres are estimated at 90.9 million acres, which is down 3 percent from a year ago. The most recent crop progress report has the U.S. corn crop at 61% good or excellent condition compared to 66% good or excellent condition a year ago at this time. At this point in the season, it looks like we will fall short of the record yields that were posted a year ago and some suggest that we may even see yield fall below the trend. However, even with lower corn production than a year ago, there is still a whole lot of corn still sitting in storage. And, while yields may fall short of the trend line yields it won’t be all that bad. That is going to continue to pressure corn prices lower, particularly as we inch closer to harvest. December corn futures have already begun a slow downward march, trading a full 30 cents lower than the early July high. If the weather holds out across the Corn Belt and there are no major hiccups over the course of the next month, the fundamentals suggest that corn will continue to trend lower through harvest. While lower corn prices will be a disappointment for U.S. crop producers, it could provide a much needed boost to the cattle industry. Lower corn prices could help to boost feedlot demand for lighter weight cattle at a time when we will likely see larger supplies of those same cattle. That could help to add some support for feeder cattle prices just as many producers are looking to unload.

Source: osu.edu


Trending Video

Secure Pork Supply Plan | Preparing for the Future | U.S. Pork Producers

Video: Secure Pork Supply Plan | Preparing for the Future | U.S. Pork Producers

Join Jill Brokaw, a third-generation pig farmer and staff member of the National Pork Board, as she dives into the vital role of the Secure Pork Supply (SPS) Plan in preparing the U.S. pork industry for potential foreign animal disease outbreaks. This video is an essential watch for pork producers who are looking to safeguard their operations against the threats of diseases like foot and mouth disease, classical swine fever, and African swine fever.

Why Should Pork Producers Care? An outbreak of foreign animal diseases in the U.S. could lead to severe restrictions and potentially result in industry-wide financial losses estimated between $15 to $100 billion. The SPS Plan is a collective effort to prevent such catastrophic outcomes by enhancing biosecurity, ensuring animal traceability, and promoting effective disease monitoring.

What You'll Learn:

The Importance of Preparedness: Understand why being proactive is crucial for maintaining business continuity during an outbreak. Enhanced Biosecurity Measures: Write a site-specific biosecurity plan that can serve as the first line of defense against potential outbreaks. Animal Disease Traceability: Learn about the significance of tracking animal movement and how acquiring a premises identification number (PIN) and using AgView can facilitate this process. Disease Monitoring: Find out how continuous observation and reporting can keep your herd healthy and disease-free.

Getting Started with SPS: The video breaks down the seemingly daunting task of preparing for a foreign animal disease outbreak into manageable steps. With free resources available at www.securepork.org, including templates and instructions, Jill guides producers on developing a customized plan to enhance their farm's defenses.

Expert Insights: Hear from Dr. Pam Zaabel on collaborating with your herd veterinarian to develop and implement your SPS plan effectively.

Takeaway: The Secure Pork Supply initiative is more than a plan; it's a commitment to the resilience of our food supply and the livelihoods within the pork industry. By embracing these proactive measures, we can collectively enhance our preparedness for foreign animal disease outbreaks.