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Farmer sentiment plunges

Farmer sentiment plunged in April as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer decreased 15 points from a month earlier to a reading of 99. The barometer’s sub-indices both declined from a month earlier, with the Current Condition Index at 83 – a decrease of 18 points – and the Future Expectations Index at 106 – a decrease of 14 points.

It was the weakest farmer-sentiment reading since June 2022 and the worst current-condition rating since May 2020. Concerns about current farm financial situations and expectations for weak financial performance in the year ahead were the driving forces behind the decrease in farmer sentiment. The April Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted April 8-12.

The Farm Financial Performance Index decreased to 76 in April, 7 points less than a month earlier and 21 points less than fall 2023’s peak of 97. The financial index is based upon a question that asks farmers if they expect farm financial performance to be better than, worse than or about the same as the previous year. Fewer producers this month said they expected better or the same financial performance, with more respondents choosing worse performance than this past year. Farmer expectation that 2024 will be a difficult year was a big contributor to this month’s decline in farmer sentiment.

The April Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index reading of 112 was 12 points less than in March, more than wiping out the increase in the index that took place in March. The percentage of producers who expect farmland values in their area to increase during the next 12 months dipped to just 29 percent from 38 percent in March, while more respondents said they expect values to remain unchanged in the upcoming year. Concerns about farm financial performance in 2024 this month outweighed a more-optimistic view regarding future interest-rate changes. In April just 24 percent of respondents said they look for interest rates to increase during the next year, a decrease from 32 percent of farmers who felt that way in March.

This month’s survey again included questions about leasing farmland for solar-energy production. There was a noticeable increase in the percentage of respondents who reported a discussion with a company in the past six months about leasing farmland for solar-energy production. In April that percentage increased 7 points to 19 percent of respondents, an increase from 12 percent in March.

The April survey’s question related to farmland values in the next 12 months included a new response category – energy production. Although most producers continued to point to non-farm-investor demand as the key reason for their optimism about farmland values, 8 percent of this month’s respondents cited energy production as an important reason – such as wind, solar or carbon-capture usage.

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The Investment Opportunities of Industrial Hemp

Video: The Investment Opportunities of Industrial Hemp

The fledgling U.S. hemp industry is decades behind countries like Canada, France and China, but according to impact investor and this week’s podcast guest, Pierre Berard, it could flourish into a $2.2 billion industry by 2030 and create thousands of jobs.

To reach its potential, what the hemp industry needs most right now, Berard said, is capital investment.

Last month, Berard published a report titled “Seeing the U.S. Industrial Hemp Opportunity — A Pioneering Venture for Investors and Corporations Driven by Environmental, Social and Financial Concerns” in which he lays out the case for investment.

It’s as if Berard, with this report, is waving a giant flag, trying to attract the eyes of investors, saying, “Look over here. Look at all this opportunity.”

Berard likens the burgeoning American hemp industry to a developing country.

“There is no capital. People don’t want to finance. This is too risky. And I was like, OK, this sounds like something for me,” he said.

As an impact investor who manages funds specializing in agro-processing companies, Berard now has his sights set on the U.S. hemp industry, which he believes has great economic value as well as social and environmental benefits.

He spent many years developing investment in the agriculture infrastructure of developing countries in Latin America and Africa, and said the hemp industry feels similar.

“It is very nascent and it is a very fragmented sector. You have pioneers and trailblazers inventing or reinventing the field after 80 years of prohibition,” he said. “So I feel very familiar with this context.”

On this week’s hemp podcast, Berard talks about the report and the opportunities available to investors in the feed, fiber and food sectors of the hemp industry.

Building an industry around an agricultural commodity takes time, he said. According to the report, “The soybean industry took about 50 years to become firmly established, from the first USDA imports in 1898 to the U.S. being the top worldwide producer in the 1950s.”

Berard has a plan to accelerate the growth of the hemp industry and sees a four-pillar approach to attract investment.

First, he said, the foundation of the industry is the relationship between farmers and processors at the local level.

Second, he said the industry needs what he calls a “federating body” that will represent it, foster markets and innovations, and reduce risk for its members and investors.

The third pillar is “collaboration with corporations that aim to secure or diversify their supply chains with sustainable products and enhance their ESG credentials. This will be key to funding the industry and creating markets,” he said.

The fourth pillar is investment. Lots of it. Over $1.6 billion over seven years. This money will come from government, corporations, individual investors, and philanthropic donors.

The 75-page report goes into detail about the hemp industry, its environmental and social impact, and the opportunities available to investors.

Read the report here: Seeing the U.S. Industrial Hemp Opportunity

Also on this episode, we check in with hemp and bison farmer Herb Grove from Brush Mountain Bison in Centre County, PA, where he grew 50 acres of hemp grain. We’ll hear about harvest and dry down and crushing the seed for oil and cake.