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Fewer Imported Cattle from Canada and Mexico Suggests Signs of Retention and Herd Rebuilding
Dr. Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, offers his economic analysis of the beef cattle industry. This analysis is a part of the weekly series known as the "Cow Calf Corner" published electronically by Dr. Peel and Dr. Glenn Selk. Today, Dr. Peel highlights the latest statistics showing fewer imported cattle from Mexico and Canada, which he says could indicate signs of retention and herd rebuilding.
"Total U.S. cattle imports were down 7.4 percent in March compared to one year ago. Monthly imports of cattle from Mexico were down about one percent while cattle imports from Canada were down 17 percent year over year. For the first three months of the year total cattle imports from Mexico are up 24.3 percent while imports from Canada are down 18.5 percent leading to a combined year-to-date cattle import total up 5.6 percent compared to the same period one year ago. Total annual cattle imports from Mexico and Canada in 2016 were 1.71 million head, down 13.9 percent from the 2015 total, and the lowest total cattle imports since 2004.
"Annual cattle imports from Mexico decreased 18.3 percent year over year in 2016 to a total of 943,043 head. However, monthly cattle imports from Mexico increased year over year from last November until the slight decrease in the latest March data. Stronger U.S. cattle markets and the sharp devaluation of the Mexican Peso following the election both contributed to the increases from November through February. For the 3-month year-to-date total, steer imports from Mexico are up 17 percent year over year. Most of the increase is in lighter-weight steers (under 450 pounds). This may indicate that steers are being exported earlier rather than waiting until weights are heavier later in the year. Imports of spayed heifers from Mexico are nearly double, up 98.1 percent, from the same period one year ago. For the year-to-date, heifers account for 14.9 percent of total Mexican cattle imported compared to 9.4 percent one year ago. Last year’s heifer export rate was lower than is typical and suggested more heifer retention and herd rebuilding. However, the current rate may indicate that heifer retention in Mexico is slowing. Despite increased imports of Mexican cattle in January and February, the data suggest that exports were somewhat front-loaded early in the year and will not continue to increase year over year. March imports were about equal to last year and preliminary weekly data for April indicates a significant year over year decrease in imports of Mexican cattle.
Cattle imports from Canada totaled 764,970 head in 2016, down 7.8 percent from 2015. Cattle imports from Canada include feeder steers and heifers, slaughter steers and heifers, and slaughter cows and bulls. In 2017, year-to-date total slaughter cattle imports from Canada are down 15.0 percent including a 40.9 percent decrease in slaughter cows and a 14.9 percent decrease in slaughter heifers year over year.
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