Food processing outlook clouded by uncertainty

The agri-food supply chain is very resilient, but not immune to economic cycles that shift food demand and introduce higher costs. The COVID-19 pandemic will bring a severe recession, and introduce permanent transformations in the supply chain and significant variability in profitability trends of food processors.

 

 

Patterns in food manufacturing sales leading up to the current recession show a healthy food processing sector as year-over-year (YoY) growth in monthly manufacturing sales was mostly positive (Figure 1). Aggregating data at that level can however hide some important trends across different sectors. For example, sales for the bakery, meat or fruit and vegetable preserving sectors have been growing but at a slower pace in the last twelve months.