Food processing outlook clouded by uncertainty

The agri-food supply chain is very resilient, but not immune to economic cycles that shift food demand and introduce higher costs. The COVID-19 pandemic will bring a severe recession, and introduce permanent transformations in the supply chain and significant variability in profitability trends of food processors.

 

 

Patterns in food manufacturing sales leading up to the current recession show a healthy food processing sector as year-over-year (YoY) growth in monthly manufacturing sales was mostly positive (Figure 1). Aggregating data at that level can however hide some important trends across different sectors. For example, sales for the bakery, meat or fruit and vegetable preserving sectors have been growing but at a slower pace in the last twelve months.

Video: USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension

USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.