By Jim Noel
Temperatures into November: The warmer than normal weather pattern will continue. However, it appears we will get a burst of colder weather next week. Confidence in the temperature forecast is high.
Precipitation: We will be slowly transitioning from the drier first half of fall to a wetter pattern over the next 1-2 months that will persist into next spring. Lake effect precipitation will be increasing starting next week in northern and northeastern Ohio. Confidence in the rainfall forecast is moderate.
Freeze/frosts: As forecast months ago...we expect a later than normal freeze this autumn, likely 1-2 weeks late. There has been some patchy frost to this point but nothing real significant. Typically we see our first freeze about now. It appears the first freeze may come sometime next week at least to some of the area which again will be3 1-2 weeks late. Confidence in the first hard freeze being late is high.
Outlook week of October 17-22: Expect temperatures to turn above normal again this week. Normal highs are about 60 and normal lows about 40. Expect temperatures 10-15 above normal starting Wednesday. It will be a dry week with no rainfall so it would be good to harvest as fast as possible as soon as fields dry.
Outlook Week of October 23-30: Expect temperatures to drop with a blast of chilly autumn weather. Temperatures may end up a few degrees below normal to normal. Precipitation will occur early and late in the week. Overall, rainfall will average near normal from 0.25 to 1.00 inches.
The NOAA/NWS/OHRFC two-week rainfall graphic shows generally a dry week this week then a bit wetter pattern yielding a two week total near or just slightly below average over much of the corn and soybean region. In Ohio the greatest rain totals will be in northeast Ohio where some lake effect precipitation will kick in starting the week of Oct. 23 yielding a two week total of 2-3+ inches so the risk increases after Oct. 22 of more delays in harvest.