Pulse crops have been receiving a lot of attention the past few months, not only because 2016 is the International Year of Pulses. Production problems in other countries have driven prices to record highs and have generated huge amounts of interest. The extreme prices have done their job and farmers are responding with record pea and lentil acreage, setting the stage for unprecedented production and a return to more normal prices.
With all of the focus on peas and lentils, chickpeas seem to have flown under the radar, at least in Canada. StatsCan is showing chickpea seeding intentions lower than last year, although some of that limited response is related to limited seed supplies. Acreage in the US is forecast to rise from last year but the crop certainly won’t be massive.
Those familiar with chickpeas know the Canadian crop doesn’t usually have a large influence on the market. This year however, the global market is looking for a boost to production and the lack of a Canadian acreage response will actually be supportive. Keep in mind, this refers to kabuli chickpeas; Canada is essentially a non-player in the desi market.
The chart shows prices for kabuli chickpeas in Mexico and India have jumped sharply and Canadian bids have responded too, after a long period of inaction. Canadian prices had been flat, largely because heavy domestic supplies had hung over the market for several years. In 2015/16 however, Canadian production fell and export demand spiked, a double whammy that woke up the market.
The big reason for stronger export interest was that last year’s (2015) production fell sharply in India and Mexico, the two dominant exporters of large calibre kabulis. That started the ball rolling and then the 2016 crops in both those two countries were also reduced, triggering the latest spike in prices. The next Indian and Mexican crops won’t be available until early 2017, leaving the market short of supplies of large calibre kabulis until then.
Smaller calibre kabuli and desi chickpea prices are also performing very well, but there’s more potential for a big production response in 2016. Production of small calibre kabulis is expected to increase in the Black Sea region and those supplies will be available for export about a month before the Canadian harvest. Australia is the dominant exporter of desi chickpeas and production is forecast to rise sharply from last year’s levels, but only if rains fall soon in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. That crop would be available later in 2016. And finally, the big boost in yellow pea production in Canada and elsewhere will act as a substitute for desi chickpeas in India, and that could cause that part of the market to soften slightly.
Old-crop supplies are tight and prices will remain high, especially for large kabulis, even though there are few chickpeas available for trade. Because North American crop won’t be able to make up fully for crop losses elsewhere, new-crop prices will remain supported, at least until early 2017, with most of the strength seen in large calibre kabulis.
Source : Albertapulse