U.S. wheat supplies for 2015/16 are projected up 6 percent from 2014/15 on higher beginning stocks and production. The survey-based forecast for 2015/16 all winter wheat production is up 7 percent with both higher yields and harvested area. This year’s hard red winter wheat yield is above last year’s low level, but drought and winterkill have adversely affected the crop again. Spring wheat production for 2015/16 is projected to decline 5 percent on an assumed return to trend yields from last year’s near record level, more than offsetting a slight increase in harvested area.
Total U.S. wheat use for 2015/16 is projected up 4 percent from the previous year on higher exports, feed and residual use, and food use. The 2015/16 exports are projected at 925 million bushels, up 65 million bushels from the previous year’s low level but still below the 5 year-average. Feed and residual use is projected up 20 million bushels on increased supplies. U.S. ending stocks are projected to rise 84 million bushels to 793 million, the highest since the 2010/11 crop year. The all wheat season-average farm price is projected at $4.50 to $5.50 per bushel.
World wheat production in 2015/16 is projected to decline by 1 percent from the previous year’s record, although it is expected to be the second highest ever. Larger beginning stocks are forecast to more than offset the wheat output reduction. Increases in wheat use are expected to be modest, with feed use down and food use growing in line with population. Wheat stocks are expected to increase for the fourth year in a row. U.S wheat export prospects are projected to rebound from the 2014/15 level, the lowest since 2002/03
Source: USDA