2012/13 Supplies Are Unchanged from November
Total projected supplies for 2012/13, at 3.142 million bushels, are unchanged from November. Supplies for 2012/13 are 168 million bushels above 2011/12. Higher production (+270 million bushels) and imports (+18 million bushels) more than offset lower beginning stocks (-119 million bushels) year to year. Projected supplies of hard red winter (HRW), hard red spring (HRS), and durum are up year to year, mostly because of higher production. HRW production is up 224 million bushels year to year, with higher planted area and smaller abandonment rate. Yields are also higher year to year because of the recovery from the severe drought on the Central and Southern Plains the previous year. HRS and durum production are up 107 million bushels and 32 million bushels, respectively, from a year ago with larger harvested areas and higher yields. Production for these two classes of wheat recovered from the previous year when excessive moisture and cool temperatures in the Northern Plains resulted in late seeding and prevented plantings.
Projected supplies of soft red winter (SRW) and white are down from 2011/12. Both classes had lower production for 2012/13, down 38 million bushels and 55 million bushels, respectively, on the year. Production is down for both classes because of smaller harvested area and lower yields. SRW planted area was down because a late row crop harvest delayed plantings in the Corn Belt and Northeast. All-wheat 2012 production is estimated at 2,269 million bushels, unchanged from November, but up 270 million bushels from 2011. The all-wheat harvested area is estimated at 49.0 million acres, unchanged from November, but up 3.3 million acres from last year. The U.S. all-wheat estimated yield is 46.3 bushels per acre for 2012, equaling the record 46.3 bushels for 2010. The yield is unchanged from November, but up 2.6 bushels from the previous year.
Total 2012/13 carryin stocks estimated at 743 million bushels, are unchanged from November, but down 119 million bushels from 2011/12. Carryin stocks are down year to year for all classes except SRW. Projected all-wheat imports for 2012/13, at 130 million bushels, are unchanged from October, but up 18 million bushels from the previous year.
2012/13 Exports Down and Ending Stocks Up
Domestic use of wheat for 2012/13 is projected at 1,338 million bushels, unchanged from November, but 156 million bushels higher than last year. Food use for 2011/12 is projected at 950 million bushels, unchanged from November, but up 9 million bushels from 2011/12. The higher year-to-year food use reflects both continued high extraction rates due to high wheat prices and population growth. Feed and residual use is projected at 315 million bushels, unchanged from November. Projected feed and residual use for 2012/13 is 151 million bushels above feed and residual use for 2011/12.
Projected exports for 2012/13 are 1,050 million bushels, down 50 million bushels from November based on the pace to date and on increased prospects for competition from foreign supplies. Exports for 2012/13 are expected to be the same as in 2011/12.
Based largely on the pace of sales and shipments to date, HRW, SRW, and HRS exports are reduced 45 million bushels, 10 million bushels, and 5 million bushels, respectively. White exports are raised 10 million bushels. Exports of durum are unchanged.
Projected total U.S. ending stocks for 2012/13, at 754 million bushels, are up from November by 50 million bushels with the lower projected exports. The 2012/13 ending stocks are up 11 million bushels from 2011/12. All wheat ending stocks are projected up 2 percent from 2011/12. Durum, HRS, and SRW ending stocks are up from 2011/12 by 55 percent, 16 percent, and 16 percent, respectively. White and HRW ending stocks are down from 2011/12 by 20 percent and 14 percent, respectively.
2012/13 Price Range Is Narrowed in December
The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average farm price in December is narrowed to $7.70 to $8.30 per bushel compared with $7.75 to $8.45 per bushel last month. With this narrowing of the price range, the midpoint is lowered 10 cents per bushel with the larger expected carryout and weakening export prospects. This compares with the record $7.24 per bushel reported for 2011/12.
Winter Wheat Conditions Are Mixed
Winter wheat conditions as of November 25 are not as favorable as last year at this time. For all winter wheat seedings, 33 percent of the crop rated good to excellent compared to 52 percent a year ago. Twenty-six percent of the seedings this year are rated poor to very poor compared to 13 percent a year ago at this time.
This year’s crop conditions are quite variable by region of the country. Conditions for HRW seendings are not as good as for SRW seedings. For the Central and Southern Plains, the percentage of seedings rated poor to very poor are: Nebraska, 46; Oklahoma, 44; and Texas, 40; and Kansas, 25. South Dakota is even worse, with 64 percent of the crop rated poor to very poor.
SRW States that have the highest percentage of their seedings rated good to excellent include: Indiana, 72; Michigan, 72; Ohio, 70, Illinois, 69; North Carolina, 67; and Arkansas, 63. Conditions in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) are also much better than the Plains. The percentage of PNW rated good to excellent is: Idaho, 77; Washington, 67; and Oregon, 61.
USDA Wheat Baseline, 2012-21
Each year, USDA updates its 10-year projections of supply and utilization for major field crops grown in the United States, including wheat. A detailed discussion summarizing the historical forces determining U.S. wheat supply and utilization, and the analysis underlying the wheat projections for 2012-21.
Source : USDA