SUGAR: U.S. sugar beginning stocks for 2015/16 are increased by 40,990 short tons, raw value (STRV) based on refiners’ corrected data for 2014/15 as published in Sweetener
Market Data. U.S. sugar production for 2015/16 is projected at 8.827 million STRV, a decrease of 21,901. Florida cane sugar is decreased 27,492 STRV to 2.108 million. While Florida cane processors have produced only 1.084 million STRV through January due to difficult harvest conditions, no processor has forecast reduced sugarcane production, with all maintaining that the harvest will be extended by at least a month to meet all individual processor sugarcane production goals. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts Florida sugarcane for sugar at 16.974 million tons. Based on refiner projections, sucrose recovery will be lower by 2.5 percent due to the extended harvest. Cane sugar production levels for all other States are unchanged from last month. Beet sugar production is increased by a small 5,591 STRV to 5.016 million as reduced beet pile shrink is partially offset by lower expected sucrose recovery. On March 7, 2016, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) provided notice of a reallocation of 85,533 metric tons, raw value (MTRV) of the 2015/16 raw sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) from countries unable to fill their original allocations to the other countriescapable of filling. As a consequence, the raw sugar TRQ shortfall is revised downward from 99,208 STRV to 27,558, a reduction of 71,650. Imports from Mexico are reduced by 33,424 STRV to 1.299 million.
Exports to Mexico for 2015/16 are expected to be lower by 23,476 STRV. Also, since last month, U.S. cane sugar refiners have become more pessimistic about generating export alternatives after Mexico banned duty-free imports of U.S. sugar benefitting from the reexport import program. Sugar exports are, therefore, projected at 100,000 STRV. No other changes to sugar use were made. Ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 1.646 million STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5 percent.
For the 2015/16 Mexico sugar supply and use balance, imports are decreased by 20,092 MT to match the decrease in U.S. exports to Mexico. Mexico exports are projected at 1.122million MT, a decrease of 28,606 from last month. Exports to the United States are projected at 1.112 million MT, based on changes made in the March 2016 WASDE for the United States as per the Countervailing Duty (CVD) Suspension Agreement of December 19, 2014
Source: USDA WASDE