COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, increased feed and residual use and exports, and greater ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.578 billion bushels, up 298 million from last month on a record-high yield. Feed and residual use is raised 75 million bushels based on a larger crop. Exports are raised 75 million bushels, reflecting expectations of improved U.S. competitiveness, reduced exports for Ukraine, and increased demand from Mexico based on sharply lower sorghum production prospects. With supply rising faster than use, corn ending stocks are up 147 million bushels from last month. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged with a midpoint of $3.20 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2017/18 is forecast 3.2 million tons higher to 1,322.6 million. The 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, reduced consumption, and smaller stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast lower mostly reflecting reductions for Ukraine, Russia, and Vietnam that are only partially offset by an increase for the European Union. The projected corn yields for Russia and Ukraine are reduced based on reported harvest results to date. Sorghum production in Mexico is lowered based on area indications from the government and lower forecast yields as a result of the prevalence of the sugarcane aphid.
Corn exports are lowered for Ukraine but raised for the United States. Imports are raised for Mexico and Canada, but lowered for South Korea. China’s barley imports are raised reflecting expectations of continued demand for imported feedstuffs. Foreign corn ending stocks are down from last month, mostly reflecting declines for China, Vietnam, Canada, and Ukraine that more than offset increases for the EU and Argentina. Global corn stocks, at 203.9 million tons, are up 2.9 million from last month.