LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:
The forecast for total red meat and poultry production for 2016 is raised from last month. Beef production is forecast higher largely on the pace of slaughter in the second quarter, but also as feedlot marketings during the second half of the year are expected to remain relatively high. Pork production for 2016 is also raised, based on second quarter slaughter and larger expected slaughter in the fourth quarter. Broiler production for 2016 is raised on year-to-date production and hatchery data. The turkey production forecast is raised on second quarter production data. For 2017, pork production is reduced. In the June 24 mQuarterly Hogs and Pigs report, producers indicated intentions to have fewer sows farrow in the msecond half of 2016 compared to 2015. No change is made to the 2017 production forecasts for mbeef or poultry. Table egg production is raised for both 2016 and 2017 on improved returns.
Only small changes are made to the beef and pork trade forecasts for 2016 and no change is made to the 2017 forecast. Both beef imports and exports are raised based on May trade data. Pork imports are lowered, but exports are raised. Broiler exports are raised slightly for 2016 and 2017, based on the recent reopening of South Korea to U.S. fresh and frozen poultry meat. No
change is made to turkey exports.
Cattle price forecasts for second-half 2016 are unchanged from last month as is the 2017 forecast. Hog prices are raised for both years on current prices and lower expected supplies of hogs in 2017. Broiler prices are unchanged for both 2016 and 2017. Turkey prices are raised for the second-half of 2016, but are unchanged for 2017. Egg prices are raised for 2016 as demand has begun to recover; the forecast for 2017 is unchanged.
The milk production forecast for 2016 is lowered from last month as the pace of cow herd expansion has slowed. However, the production forecast for 2017 is raised as higher forecast milk prices and lower feed costs in late 2016 and early 2017 are expected to lead to higher 2017 cow numbers. Fat basis exports are lowered for 2016 as slowing sales of butterfat products more than offset higher whole milk powder (WMP) exports. The forecast for 2017 is unchanged.
On a skim-solids basis, the export forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are raised on higher WMP sales. For 2016 and 2017, imports are unchanged on a fat basis, but are raised on a skim-solids basis. Fat basis stocks are forecast higher as stocks of butter remain high, but on a skim-solids basis, stocks are reduced.
Cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk, and whey prices for 2016 and 2017 are forecast higher as demand remains robust. Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised for both 2016 and 2017 as the component product prices forecasts are raised. The all milk prices are forecast higher at $15.55 to $15.85 per cwt for 2016 and $15.70 to $16.70 per cwt for 2017.
Source: USDA WSDA