OILSEEDS: Total U.S. oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected at 132.2 million tons, up
slightly due to a small increase in cottonseed. Soybean exports are reduced 25 million
bushels to 2,225 million on stronger-than-expected competition from Argentina and Brazil
during the first quarter of the marketing year. Seed use is raised in line with projected
plantings in the recently released tables to be included in the upcoming Long Term
Agricultural Projections to 2027 report https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections.htm.
Soybean ending stocks for 2017/18 are projected at 445 million bushels, up 20 million from
last month and still the highest since 2006/07.
Following the December 5, 2017 affirmative determination by the U.S. International Trade
Commission regarding countervailing duties on biodiesel imports from Argentina and
Indonesia, soybean oil used for domestic production of methyl ester is raised 500 million
pounds to 7.5 billion. Reduced soybean oil exports and non-ester domestic use are
offsetting, leaving projected ending stocks unchanged at 1.62 billion pounds.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2017/18 is narrowed to $8.60 to $10.00
per bushel. The soybean meal and soybean oil price ranges are unchanged at $295 to $335
per short ton and 32.5 to 36.5 cents per pound, respectively.
The global oilseed supply and demand forecasts for 2017/18 include higher production,
exports, and ending stocks compared to last month. Global production is forecast at 579.5
million tons, up 0.7 million mostly reflecting higher rapeseed, peanut, and palm kernel
production. Rapeseed is increased 0.8 million tons to 72.9 million as reductions for Australia
and India are more than offset by a 1.6-million-ton increase for Canada based on recent
government estimates. Peanut production is raised for Senegal on higher area and yields.
An increase in EU sunflowerseed production is offset by lower production for Russia and
Argentina. Other production changes include higher palm oil for Indonesia and Thailand and
lower palm oil for Malaysia.
Global oilseed exports for 2017/18 are raised 0.5 million tons to 176.3 million with higher
soybean exports for Argentina and Brazil and higher rapeseed exports for Canada. Partly
offsetting are lower soybean exports for the United States and Canada, and lower
sunflowerseed exports for Argentina. Global soybean stocks are up 0.4 million tons to 98.3
million, with lower stocks in South America offset by higher stocks in the United States,
Canada, and the EU.