Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2014/15 are raised this month mostly with an increase in forecast Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat production as well as smaller increases for Soft Red Winter (SRW), Hard Red Spring (HRS), and Durum. Northern parts of the HRW belt have substantially higher yields than the drought damaged southern and central plains. The largest HRW increases are in Colorado and Nebraska. After a delay in planting, HRS wheat has had very good growing conditions and yields are forecast well above average. Feed and residual use for all wheat in 2014/15 is raised 10 million bushels to 155 million due to the larger supplies. All wheat exports for 2014/15 are increased 25 million bushel s because of the larger HRW crop. The projected season-average farm price range is lowered 30 cents at the midpoint to $5.80 to $6.80 per bushel.
World wheat production for 2014/15 is raised 10.9 million tons to a record 716.1 million. The largest foreign increases are 6.0 million tons for Russia, 2.0 million tons for China, and 1.0 milliontons for Ukraine. The Russia and Ukraine increases are based on harvest reports that indicate very high winter wheat yields, especially for Russia. The China increase reflects the latest government estimates for summer harvested grains. Production is also raised 0.6 million tons for Belarus and 0.4 million tons for Moldova.
Global wheat consumption is raised 6.9 million tons due mainly to increased prospects for wheat feeding. The biggest feeding increase is for EU, which is raised 2.5 million tons. Excessive harvest-time precipitation in several European production regions has in creased the quantity of feed-quality wheat. Russia wheat feeding is raised 1.0 million tons, and Ukraine and Belarus are each raised 0.5 million tons due to increased production in those countries. Smaller feeding increases are made for Philippines, Moldova, and Israel.
Global wheat trade for 2014/15 is nearly unchanged with increases in Russia and the United States offset by reductions in EU and several other countries. The changes reflect larger crops in Russia and the United States as well as quality problems in EU. India exports are lowered 0.5 million tons because of competition, especially from lower quality wheat in Ukraine and southeastern EU. China and Russia imports are lowered 1.0 million tons and 0.5 million tons , respectively, because of increased production. Egypt imports are lowered 0.5 million tons due to changes in its bread subsidy program that are expected to reduce waste. Iran imports are raised 0.5 million tons reflecting government announced purchases. With supplies rising faster than use, global ending stocks are raised 3.4 million tons and remain at a 3-year high.
Source: USDA WASDE