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Why So Few Insects This Year?

 
Pod-eating insects — including bertha armyworm, lygus and diamondback moth larvae — are at low levels in general in 2016. The biggest factors regulating insect populations are (1) weather, (2) natural enemies and (3) competing food sources. Each is working in favour of lower insect pest pressure this year.
 
Weather. Wet weather can increase insect diseases and pounding rains can knock worms and bugs to the ground where they drown or are eaten by beetles and other beneficials. Heavy rainfall can be a major mortality factor for eggs and early instars of diamondback moth, for example. Winter weather also comes into play. For bertha armyworm, ample snow cover will reduce winter kill.
 
Natural enemies. Entomologists have noted a lot of parasitoids of bertha armyworm in the last couple of years, so that will be helping. Beneficials are also helping manage diamondback moth. 
 
Competing food sources. When there is good crop and non-crop plant growth, this can reduce overall economic pressure from generalist insects such as grasshoppers and lygus bugs. In that case, their numbers may be the same as always but they have a lot more to eat so we don’t notice them.
 
Low arrival numbers. For diamondback moth, the population that blew in for 2016 was not too high, in general, which would be a fourth factor.
 
Hot spots can still flare up. Overall the trap counts for bertha armyworm suggest lower risk in most areas, although Manitoba has several traps in the uncertain risk and one (Durban) at moderate risk.
 
Source : Albertacanola

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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.