La Nina 2016 Potential Impacts

 

La Niña is back in the news as a player in our climate for the 2016-17 fall and winter season. What does this mean for South Dakota?

 

As of July 14, 2016, it is about 55-60% likely that La Niña will impact our climate in the United States. La Niña is defined by a cooling of the eastern Pacfic Ocean near the equator, and a corresponding change in atmospheric circulation. Many recent runs of climate computer models have found that the Pacific Ocean is behaving more like La Niña than the atmosphere. At this time, a relatively weak La Niña is more likely than not.

 

 

In the last two months, it was expected that La Niña would impact our region by the fall season. In October, this climate pattern can sometimes mean slightly wetter and slightly warmer conditions, especially in the Eastern side of the state. In the other fall months of September and November, there is not as clear of a climate signal.