Patience Needed for Relief from Prairie Dryness

There may be hope for drought-plagued Western Canada, but farmers will need to be patient.

Andrew Pritchard, senior meteorologist with Nutrien Ag Solutions, said he is optimistic that Prairie moisture conditions will improve, but warned any relief is likely still months away.

“My optimism for the Prairies comes much later, as we get into March, April and May,” he said during a presentation at the Ontario Agricultural Conference earlier this month.

Pritchard said he is pinning his hopes on a pattern change that has recently brought much colder and winter-like weather to much of the Prairies and eastern Canada after an extended period of relatively warm and dry weather. If that pattern change, due a more northward track in the subtropical jet stream, continues to strengthen and consolidate as the current El Nino event breaks down it may eventually bring more moisture up from the Gulf Mexico through the central US and into the Prairies, he said.

Pritchard cautioned the coming moisture is not likely to completely erase all the drought and dryness across the Prairies and there is a good chance that some areas will remain dry throughout the entire winter. But the signs at this point indicate at least some improvement.

“The ingredients for continued growing season drought in 2024 are far less prominent,” he said. “It’s not quite the same dark story.”

The latest monthly update of the Canadian drought monitor showed 100% of Prairie agricultural lands impacted by abnormal dryness or some form of drought as of the end of December, as conditions continued to deteriorate from November. Many producers in some of the worst-hit areas, particularly the southwestern Prairie, have now endured multiple years of drought, leaving completely dry soils in some cases.

The latest edition of the Canadian Agricultural Weather Prognosticator from World Weather appears to be in general agreement with Pritchard, suggesting little change in Prairie conditions through most of January but the potential for relief beginning in February and March.