OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2016/17 is projected at 124.3 million tons, up 4.1 million from last month with higher soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production. Soybean production is projected at a record 4,201 million bushels, up 141 million due to a higher yield forecast. Soybean supplies are raised with higher production more than offsetting lower beginning stocks. Despite higher crush and exports, 2016/17 soybean ending stocks are projected at 365 million bushels, up 35 million from last month due to higher supplies.
Changes for 2015/16 include higher exports and lower ending stocks. Exports are increased 60 million to a record 1,940 million bushels based on official trade through July and indications from record high August export inspections. Ending stocks are projected at 195 million bushels, down 60 million from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $8.30 to $9.80 per bushel, down 5 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are also projected lower at $300 to $340 per short ton, down 5 dollars on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 30.5 to 35.5 cents per pound, up 1 cent on both ends.
Global oilseed production for 2016/17 is projected at 544.5 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month. A reduction for rapeseed is offset with gains for soybeans, sunflowerseed, peanuts, and cottonseed. Lower soybean production forecasts for Brazil, India, and Canada are more than offset by higher production for the United States and China. Brazil soybean production is reduced on lower area as relatively strong corn prices in southern Brazil are expected to increase first-crop corn planting. Projected soybean production is reduced for India on lower area and yields. Lower yields reflect excessive rainfall throughout the major producing region for July and August. Soybean production is reduced for Canada on lower yields as reported by Statistics Canada. China soybean production is raised as a higher area forecast more than offsets a lower yield. Global rapeseed production is reduced slightly with reduced forecasts for the EU and Russia partly offset by an increase for Canada. The 2016/17 Canada rapeseed crop is raised with both area and yield adjusted in line with the final estimates for the 2015/16 crop recently issued by Statistics Canada. Other changes include increased peanut production for India and increased sunflowerseed production for Argentina.
Global oilseed trade for 2016/17 is reduced this month mainly reflecting reduced soybean imports for China and reduced soybean exports for Brazil and Canada. Rapeseed and sunflowerseed imports are increased for the EU partly offsetting lower rapeseed production. Global oilseed stocks for 2016/17 are projected slightly higher this month mainly reflecting the sharp increase in ending stocks of rapeseed in Canada and increased soybean stocks for the United States.
Source : USDA WASDE