The 2013/14 U.S. cotton estimates include lower production and ending stocks compared with last month. Production is reduced 320,000 bales to 12.9 million based on USDA’s final Cotton Ginnings report, released March 25. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. Ending stocks are reduced to 2.5 million bales, which is the smallest stock level since 1951. The stocks-to-use ratio of 17.5 percent is the smallest since 2010/11. The marketing-year average price received by producers is now forecast at 76 to 79 cents per pound, up 1 cent on both ends of the range, reflecting recent higher market prices.
This month’s world cotton 2013/14 estimates feature a 1.0-million-bale increase in expected imports by China, based on stronger-than-expected imports to date and the likely release of new import quotas. World production is reduced marginally as the decrease for the United States is mostly offset by increases for Brazil, Burkina Faso, and others. Slight historical revisions are made
for Australia beginning in 2000/01 based on a review of data sources. World trade is raised 1.2 million bales, as increases in imports by China, Pakistan, and Vietnam are partially offset by reductions for India and Indonesia. Exports are raised for Australia, India, and Burkina Faso, but are lowered for Brazil and Pakistan. World stocks are raised marginally.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairperson of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Gerald A. Bange, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees.
Source: USDA