SUGAR: Total imports for 2014/15 are increased by 42,721 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 3.544 million based on September data from U.S. Customs. Imports from Mexico are increased by 79,000 STRV for a 2014/15 total of 1.530 million STRV. This estimate, if realized, would exceed by about 4,000 STRV, the export limit imposed by the Countervail Duty (CVD) Suspension Agreement. Other 2014/15 import changes are: an increase in re-export imports by 9,492 STRV; imports under tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) decreased by 44,895 and high-tier tariff imports decreased by 610. Exports are increased by 15,000 STRV to 180,000 based on pace to date. Deliveries for human consumption are increased by 60,000 STRV to 11.935 million based on large imports of refined sugar for direct consumption, mostly from Mexico. Although classified as deliveries for human consumption, analysis of individual sourcing components and of import data strongly imply an estimated 90,000 STRV of the imported sugar is not being immediately consumed but is being held for delivery in the 2015/16 marketing year by entities not required to report to USDA. Ending stocks are estimated at 1.697 million STRV, implying an ending stocksto-use ratio of 13.9 percent.
Total 2015/16 U.S. production is forecast at 8.760 million STRV, a 26,000 increase from last month. Beet sugar for the 2015/16 August-July crop year is forecast at 5.243 million STRV, an increase of 41,000 based on NASS-reported improved sugarbeet yield and processor-reported sucrose levels of 17.95 percent. All of the increase is projected to occur in the 2015/16 fiscal year, implying production at 5.075 million. Cane sugar production in Hawaii is reduced 15,000 STRV to 165,000 based on processor’s forecasts. Imports are projected up 3,694 STRV based on minor changes amongst TRQ suppliers. As a result of refined sugar from non-reporting entities imported in 2014/15 but likely held for marketing at a later time, deliveries for human consumption are reduced by the estimated 90,000 STRV to 11.785 million. The 2015/16 ending stocks are forecast at 1.736 million STRV, implying an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14.3 percent.
Mexico 2014/15 imports are increased by 10,912 metric tons (MT) for more refined sugar imported from the United States for the IMMEX sugar-containing products export program. Exports for 2014/15 to the United States are increased by 67,611 MT to 1.309 million based on USDA estimated imports from Mexico. Exports to other destinations are reduced by 18,525 MT to 131,475 based on reporting by Comite Nacional Para El Desarrollo Sustentable de la Caña de Azucar (CONADESUCA). Because there are no changes in supply or use for 2015/16, ending stocks fall by the same 38,174 MT for both 2014/15 and 2015/16. The stocks-to-consumption ratios of 17.2 percent in 2014/15 and 17.0 percent in 2015/16 are below the historical average of 22 percent.
Source: USDA WASDE
Source : USDA WASDE