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2023 expected to be a bumper year with total Ontario planted acreage up over 1 percent

2023 expected to be a bumper year with total Ontario planted acreage up over 1 percent

2023 could be a new record high for corn acres

The Farms.com Risk Management team is predicting that Ontario farmers intend to plant 6.391 million acres of corn, soybeans and all wheat combined in 2023.

The number is high, but not a record, as it is lower than the 2019 record high of 6.415 million acres planted. It is, however, above the recent average of 6.3 million acres.

A new record could be in the making as intended Ontario corn acres in 2023 is predicted to be 2.277 million acres, which is up by +0.06% vs. 2022 and above the 5-year average of 2.194 million.

“I am not surprised to predict that corn acres are higher as too many acres were planted to soybeans for the second consecutive year last year and farmers are being forced to go back to a rotation to control disease and weeds despite elevated fertilizer prices. Higher corn productivity and higher profitability is attracting more corn acres,” says Moe Agostino, Chief Commodity Strategist with Farms.com Risk Management.

“The Farms.com survey results do not surprise the Maizex team as our strong seed sales are matching up with the Farms.com survey,” confirms Stephen Denys, Director of Business Management, Maizex Seeds. “Corn is still penciling in for many. The swing acres in corn are in the heavy clay regions, such as Haldimand, Lambton and southwest Kent that do not have driers.”

Total 2023 intended soybean acres are down -4.38% vs. Stats Canada’s final 2022 estimates and below the 5-year average of 3.0 million. In fact, the survey showed a decrease in edible and IP soybean acres of -17.55% and -4.13% year-on-year (Y/Y) respectively.

Wheat acres at 1.168 million are predicted to be up +24% vs. 2022. “Our survey may be light on all wheat acres as we had very few participants in the Central and Northern regions of the province,” explains Agostino.

Agricorp, which insures 73-75% of the province’s all wheat acres, is estimating the province's insured acreage at 857,998 for 2023. This could mean that the provincial 2023 all wheat acreage is closer to 1.143 -1.175 mil acres, which is in-line with the Farms.com Risk Management Teams survey estimates. “These figures compare to OMAFRA's (Stats Canada) current projection of 1.344 million acres which seems a little high to us,” stated Agostino.

Denys says that good planting conditions likely allowed more wheat to be planted last fall. SRW wheat acres account for 90% of the total Ontario all wheat acreage in 2023; 65% of the survey respondents said that they were going to increase wheat acreage.

As in any year, no matter how many acres you plant of each crop, it is important to develop a risk management strategy for your farm. Be sure to sign-up for a Farms.com Risk Management free eight-week trial to receive commodity information on a daily basis.


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