The 2026 Great Ontario Yield Tour forecasts record Ontario yields of 206 bpa corn and 55 bpa soybeans, supported by strong crop conditions and favourable weather.
Ontario farmers could be on track for one of the most productive growing seasons in provincial history.
The 2026 Great Ontario Yield Tour is forecasting a record average corn yield of 206 bushels per acre (“bpa”), with a range of +/-1% at 203.94 to 208.06 bpa depending on how the season ends weather wise, but the potential measured is high.
Soybeans are also expected to achieve a new provincial record, averaging 55 bpa, with a range of +/- 2% at 53.90 and 55.55 bpa.
The forecast suggests Ontario growers may surpass previous production records, if favourable weather conditions continue through the remainder of the growing season. Moe Agostino, master scout and Chief Commodity Strategist says, “there is plenty of moisture in the soil and if the finish is full of heat/sunshine it could be a bin buster for 80% of the province as we add kernel and pod weight.”
Regional Yield Predictions
The Yield Tour's final regional forecasts show strong production potential across the province:
| Region | Corn (bpa) | Soybeans (bpa) |
| Eastern Ontario | 200 | 58 |
| Central Ontario | 190 | 54 |
| Western Ontario | 215 | 52 |
| Southwestern Ontario | 211 | 59 |
| Southeastern Ontario | 193 | 52 |
A corn yield of 200 in Eastern Ontario would be a new record high so would the yield in both corn and soybeans in Central Ontario night and day vs. last year after a severe drought. Western Ontario is also a record at 215 bpa as are the yields in SW Ontario at 211 and 59.
Clean Corn Crop Supports Record Outlook
According to Hicham Fram, Chief Agronomist for the 2026 Great Ontario Yield Tour from tour sponsor Ceresco, Ontario's corn crop remains remarkably healthy with no leaf diseases despite a challenging cold/wet start to the season.
"The corn crop is very clean with virtually no significant leaf disease pressure," Fram noted. “As a first-time participant and sponsor of the event, I had a great time, I learned so much. Being part of the crop tour during the 2026 Great Ontario Yield Tour and performing the counts is one of the most meaningful experiences I have ever had, best of all it gave me the opportunity to meet hardworking producers across the province.”
A cold and wet spring created emergence challenges in some fields, leading to gaps, skips and sucker plants. However, those early-season setbacks appear to have had limited impact on overall yield potential with a new record corm plant population at 31,156 vs. the previous record at 30,730 and plants in 30 feet also a record at 53 plants compared to 50.9 in 2023.
The results were released at the final event held at Oxford AgroPro in Hickson, Ontario on August 27th, 2026. Farms.com Risk Management Chief Commodity Strategist Maurizio Agostino observed that earlier planted corn generally outperformed later planted fields. They added that approximately 80 per cent of Ontario's corn and soybean crops had adequate soil moisture reserves.
Twenty percent of the province was hot/dry, place like Forest, Thamesville and parts of Perth and Middlesex counties. While limited tip-back and pollination issues were observed due to summer heat stress, the affected areas were not a disaster and had timely rains in early August and again this weekend.
Heat and sunshine is needed in Eastern Ontario after record moisture in July. Agostino said he is concerned about the Super Strong El Nino as they can result in a cool/wet/slow finish which would not be ideal for finishing the crops. It causes quality issues and below average trendline yields.
“Farmers need to tighten up their harvest window and start harvesting as soon as the opportunity arises,” advises Agostino. “Taking a wait and see attitude could farmers leaving both money and yields on the table.”
Soybeans Showing Strong Pod Counts
Ontario's soybean crop also impressed tour leaders and scouts.
Fram reported soybean plants averaged approximately 40 pods per plant with populations of 38 plants per 10 feet of row, slightly exceeding pod counts recorded during the previous record-yielding crop in 2023.
Field scouts identified some disease and pest pressure, including white mould, soybean aphids, spider mites and Sudden Death Syndrome (SDS). However, overall severity appears limited and is unlikely to significantly affect provincial production.
The tour also observed numerous four-pod clusters and top clusters aka “Florida” soybeans," indicating strong reproductive development and excellent late-season yield potential.
Timely Rainfall Makes the Difference
Weather conditions have largely supported crop development throughout the province.
While parts of Southwestern Ontario experienced periods of dryness combined with above-average temperatures, timely rainfall helped maintain crop condition.
Eastern Ontario saw exceptionally wet conditions. Ottawa recorded nearly 280 millimetres (11 inches) of rainfall during July, followed by another 203 millimetres (8 inches) in the subsequent 10 days. Those totals established new local precipitation records and ensured abundant soil moisture heading into the final stages of crop development.
Growing Degree Day accumulations across Ontario remain close to the 30-year average, providing crops with the heat units necessary for normal maturation.
The current outlook calls for a warm, relatively dry finish to the season, conditions that typically favour increased kernel and pod weight. Again, tour organizers noted that broader weather patterns, including the potential influence of a strong El Niño event, remain a concern and will need to continue to be monitored.
Market Outlook Turning More Bullish
While Ontario growers are increasingly optimistic about production yields, they have begun to turn their attention toward grain markets.
Agostino believes several factors are creating a constructive outlook for grain prices, including developments across the U.S. Corn Belt, global geopolitical events and China's purchasing activity.
Agostino said December 2026 corn futures recently broke above a key three-year technical resistance level at US$5.045 per bushel.
He believes the breakout has established potential upside targets of US$5.37, US$5.49 and potentially US$6.49 per bushel over the next 50 to 60 days if supportive market conditions continue.
Agostino also noted that soybean and wheat futures appear to be approaching similar technical breakout patterns.
Looking Ahead
With crops entering the final stages of maturity, Ontario producers have reason to be optimistic. Strong plant populations, healthy crop conditions, adequate moisture and favourable late-season weather expectations have combined to create the potential for a historic record harvest.
If current forecasts are realized, 2026 could become a record-setting year for both Ontario corn and soybean production.