USDA lowers corn soybean and peanut estimates while harvest nears completion
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has updated its November crop estimates, lowering projected yields for corn, soybeans and peanuts while slightly increasing its forecast for rice production.
Despite the reductions, corn and soybean yields are still expected to remain among the highest on record. The latest report reflects changing field conditions, harvest results, and updated crop survey data from across major producing regions.
USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service reduced its estimated corn yield by three bushels per acre from the previous month. Soybean yields were also lowered by three bushels per acre after updated crop observations indicated lower pod counts in several key soybean-producing states.
Agricultural experts noted that soybean production remains a challenge in many areas. Farmers in several regions reported yields that ranged from average to below expectations due to weather-related stress during parts of the growing season. Lower soybean pod counts observed during field surveys supported USDA's decision to reduce yield projections.
Peanut yields were revised downward by 100 pounds per acre compared to October estimates. Industry specialists said drought conditions and difficult growing conditions during portions of the season likely contributed to lower production expectations.
“Many of the soybean farmers I have talked to have ‘average at best’ soybean yields for 2026,” said Jeremy Ross, an extension soybean agronomist for UADA. “If you look at the ‘Soybean Pods with Beans per 18 Square Feet’ table from the NASS report, the November 2026 pod count for Arkansas at 1,552 pods is 323 less pods than was counted in 2025, which was 1,875 pods.
Rice was the only major crop to receive a higher estimate. USDA increased projected rice yields slightly, reflecting stronger-than-expected harvest results from many growers. Agronomists said some producers achieved yields close to record levels, although variability across fields prevented a larger increase.
Cotton estimates remained unchanged in the November report. Crop specialists indicated that cotton harvest activities were progressing smoothly and that many producers were expected to complete harvest operations by the end of the week. While drought created challenges throughout the season, cotton yields have generally remained positive.
USDA also highlighted changes seen in soybean pod counts across major producing states. Several states reported lower pod numbers compared to last year, signaling potential yield reductions and supporting adjustments made in the November forecast.
“Rice yields were expected to climb over the previous estimate given that they were noticeably improved over 2025 crop yields,” said Jarrod Hardke, an extension rice agronomist for UADA. “Some growers rivaled 2024 record yields, but there was enough variability to keep many around-average yields.”
Harvest progress across Arkansas remained ahead of historical averages. Soybean harvest was nearly completed, while cotton harvest was also approaching completion. Peanut harvest activity advanced quickly and exceeded normal progress levels for this time of year.
Winter wheat planting continued across the state, although dry weather slowed crop emergence. Planting progress remained close to historical averages but emerged as acreage lagged normal levels because of limited rainfall.
Some growers increased winter wheat acreage after wheat prices reached multi-year highs earlier in the season. Strong market prices initially encouraged additional planting. However, wheat prices have since declined as larger-than-expected crops in major exporting countries increased global supplies.
Analysts said higher production in countries such as Australia, Argentina and Canada has added pressure to international wheat markets. Increased global availability has reduced price opportunities for growers heading into the 2027 marketing year.
“Australia and Argentina both ended up having decent wheat crops this year, and Canada as well,” said Scott Stiles, extension economics program associate for the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture. “There's been heavy price pressure coming from larger than expected crops around the globe.”
Despite weather challenges, agricultural specialists praised farmers for producing strong crops under difficult conditions. Drought remained one of the biggest obstacles throughout the growing season, affecting crop development and field management decisions.
As harvest wraps up, producers are reviewing results and preparing for next year's planting decisions. USDA's November report will serve as the final monthly yield update before the agency releases its annual crop production summary in January.
The report provides an important snapshot of crop performance, harvest progress and market conditions as farmers continue evaluating the 2026 growing season and planning for 2027.
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