Planted Area Increase Supports Slightly Lower Yield Estimates
Brazil is preparing for a 2025/26 corn crop estimated at 140.3 million tons, Hedgepoint Global Markets reports. This figure represents a minor 0.1% decrease from the previous season’s 140.5 million tons.
The slight decline in productivity is expected to be balanced by a rise in planted areas. Brazil’s corn fields are projected to cover 22.061 million hectares, a 2.6% increase over the 2024/25 season. However, average yields are estimated at 6,361 kilograms per hectare, down 2.6% from last year.
“Although initially lower average yields are expected for Brazilian crops compared to those recorded in the 2024/25 season, favorable weather over the next 3 to 4 months could lead to positive adjustments in estimates, possibly resulting in a new record harvest,” said Luiz Fernando Roque, Market Intelligence Coordinator at Hedgepoint Global Markets.
The expansion in the area is mainly driven by growing domestic demand, especially from the corn ethanol sector. Roque added, “As far as the area is concerned, the trend is for further growth, supported mainly by the increase in domestic consumption derived from the advance of corn ethanol production in the country, with new industrial plants coming on stream in 2026 and 2027.”
Even with delays in the soybean harvest affecting the second crop calendar, corn planting continues, particularly in central Brazil. By March 20, 91.3% of the corn area was planted, close to the historical average of 91.6%, though slightly below last year’s 95%.
Short-term weather forecasts show lower rainfall in the central region from late March to early April, helping plant progress. However, April may experience below-average rainfall, potentially affecting early crop growth. Normal rainfall is expected to return in May and June, supporting development.
Overall, weather will remain a key factor in determining final yields and the total size of Brazil’s 2025/26 corn crop.