Canada could experience an extended fall season with fewer storms and above-average temperatures under a strong El Niño pattern.
According to the Weather Network, the El Niño is strengthening and is expected to become one of the most significant events on record, raising questions about how the climate pattern could influence Canada’s fall weather and the end to the growing season for producers.
With El Niño expected to play a major role through September, October and November, The Weather Network has released its seasonal forecast for the country.
“While many parts of the world are bracing for the impacts of a historic El Niño, Canada is not expected to feel the brunt of its effects,” said Doug Gillham, Senior Meteorologist at The Weather Network.
“In fact, El Niño could have a moderating influence on some of the weather extremes that we might otherwise experience,” Gillham added.
Canada can still expect several notable fall storms, but meteorologists anticipate fewer traditional October and November storm systems than usual. Atlantic hurricane activity is also expected to remain relatively limited. At the same time, consistent winter conditions are likely to arrive later than normal, giving much of the country a longer autumn.
Temperatures are expected to fluctuate throughout the season, with periods of cooler weather interrupted by warmer spells. Overall, however, milder conditions are forecast to become more dominant across much of Canada.
In British Columbia, warmer and drier conditions are expected through late September and into October, particularly in interior areas. Coastal regions should remain closer to seasonal averages, while precipitation could increase later in the season. Winter is expected to arrive late, although higher elevations may receive substantial snowfall.
The Prairies are also expected to experience above-normal temperatures, although occasional cold outbreaks could bring brief winter-like conditions.
Milder weather should return later in the fall, while precipitation is forecast to be near normal in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba and below normal in other areas.
Ontario and Quebec are likely to have an extended autumn, with variable temperatures during September and October.
November should bring generally mild conditions, delaying the onset of sustained winter weather. A few major storms remain possible, although fewer storms are expected overall.
Atlantic Canada should see a typical transition from summer to winter, with changing temperatures and a delayed start to persistent winter conditions. Despite a quieter hurricane season, warm ocean waters could still support tropical impacts.
Across Northern Canada, warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected in most areas, while precipitation will vary by region. Far northern areas could receive above-normal precipitation.
It looks like most Canadian farmers will have a positive end to the growing season with normal to below normal precipitation.
Photo Credit: The Weather Network