Low Survey Response Rates Can Lead to Less Reliable Agricultural Data
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has collected valuable agricultural data for over 150 years, providing insights used globally in market forecasting, price discovery, and policymaking. However, recent declines in response rates to USDA surveys are threatening the integrity of this essential information.
Surveys like the Crop Production report, Cattle on Feed survey, and Farm Labor report play key roles in determining agricultural trends, guiding decisions for farmers, financial institutions, and policymakers. With response rates falling from 80-85% in the 1990s to just 46% in 2024 for some surveys, the accuracy of these reports is now in question.
One of the primary challenges is timing. Many surveys overlap with the busy farming seasons, making it harder for farmers to participate. For example, the survey to determine planted acreage is conducted at the end of the planting season, when farmers are focused on fieldwork.
The Cattle on Feed report and Farm Labor surveys are also critical for market decisions, such as beef pricing and wage determination for farm labor. Yet, response rates for these surveys have also dropped. Since 2019, fewer cattle operators and farm laborers are responding, leading to less reliable data.
The decline in survey participation is concerning because low response rates reduce the data's quality. Without accurate and complete responses, USDA might omit certain statistics, leading to biased or incomplete reports. This could affect global competitiveness in agricultural markets and reduce transparency in price setting.
USDA has improved its outreach efforts, including online surveys, text messages, and email reminders. The goal is to educate farmers on the importance of their participation and maintain the credibility of USDA data.