Higher Input Prices Force Farmers to Reconsider Fall Decisions
Farmers are entering a period of higher production costs as fertilizer and diesel fuel prices remain above levels seen during the past two years, say agricultural economists Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey, and Ryan Batts of the University of Illinois, Bradley Zwilling of the Illinois FBFM Association and the University of Illinois, and Carl Zulauf of Ohio State University.
These rising costs are expected to impact both harvest activities for the 2026 crop and planning decisions for the 2027 growing season.
Among fertilizer products, nitrogen and phosphorus sources have recorded some of the largest price increases. Anhydrous ammonia, a common nitrogen fertilizer, has risen significantly compared to previous years. Prices climbed sharply during the first half of 2026 before easing slightly in recent months. Despite the decline, they remain well above recent averages.
Diammonium phosphate (DAP), an important phosphorus fertilizer, has also become more expensive. Prices have steadily increased throughout 2026 and are higher than levels recorded during the same period in both 2024 and 2025. Potash prices have remained more stable but are still elevated compared to some recent years.
Diesel fuel costs have shown the most dramatic changes. Prices increased sharply during 2026 and remain much higher than they were a year ago. Because diesel is widely used in harvesting, transportation, and field operations, farmers could see noticeably higher fuel expenses during the fall harvest season.
Market uncertainty has been influenced by global events, including tensions and disruptions affecting energy and fertilizer supply chains. These factors have contributed to higher prices and increased volatility, making it more difficult for farmers to plan production costs.
As a result, many growers may consider adjusting their management strategies. Some may delay a portion of fertilizer applications until spring in hopes of securing lower prices. Others may review soil nutrient levels more carefully and apply only the amounts needed. Crop planning decisions may also be affected, with some operations considering a larger share of soybean acres because soybeans generally require less fertilizer than corn.
Agricultural experts suggest that farmers balance risk by spreading fertilizer purchases over time rather than relying on a single buying period. Regular soil testing, careful nutrient management, and reviewing fertilizer recommendations can also help control costs.
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