Global durum wheat consumption hits nine-year high
Canadian durum wheat exports are outpacing expectations for the 2024-25 crop year, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) driven by robust international demand and favorable market conditions.
According to Statistics Canada (STC), total production is estimated at 5.9 million tonnes (Mt), with total supply reaching 6.3 Mt, including 0.4 Mt in opening stocks.
Domestic consumption is forecast at 0.8 Mt, accounting for 13% of total supply. Meanwhile, exports have been revised upward to 5.05 Mt, reflecting strong buying interest from key markets including Italy, Algeria, Morocco, the United States, Spain, and Chile.
As of March 2025, Canadian durum exports stood at 3.7 Mt—57% higher than the previous year and 27% above the five-year average.
This surge in exports has led to a reduction in carry-out stocks, now projected at 0.45 Mt. The average spot price for Saskatchewan Canadian Amber Durum (CWAD) No.1, 13%, remains firm at $315/tonne.
Globally, the International Grains Council (IGC) has increased its 2024-25 production estimate by 0.4 Mt to 35.7 Mt, marking an 11% year-over-year increase. Despite low carry-in stocks, total supply is expected to rise 3% to 41.4 Mt. Global consumption is forecast to grow 2% to 35.1 Mt, while trade is projected to decline slightly to 9.1 Mt. Ending stocks are pegged at 6.3 Mt.
Looking ahead to 2025-26, Canadian durum production is expected to decline by 7% to 5.4 Mt, assuming average yields. Seeded area is forecast to remain stable at 2.58 million hectares. Domestic use is anticipated to hold steady, while exports are projected to fall to 4.6 Mt due to reduced European demand amid larger regional harvests. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise modestly to 0.5 Mt.
The average Saskatchewan spot price for CWAD 1, 13% is forecast at $310/tonne for the upcoming crop year.
On the global stage, the IGC projects a slight dip in production to 35.6 Mt for 2025-26, but total supply is expected to increase 1% to 41.9 Mt, supported by higher carry-in stocks. Consumption is forecast to climb nearly 2% to 35.7 Mt—the highest level in nine years—driven by growing food and feed demand in emerging economies. Global trade is expected to decline by 1% to 9.0 Mt, with ending stocks falling to 6.2 Mt.
This report provides an update to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's (AAFC) April outlook for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 crop years, which run from August 1 to July 31 for durum wheat. AAFC notes that the projections are based on market conditions and trade policies in effect as of May 13, 2025.
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Photo Credit: durum-wheat