Global Trade Tensions Rise — New U.S. Tariffs Threaten Exports, Markets, and Agriculture

Apr 04, 2025
By Farms.com Interns

Sweeping tariffs spark fears of a global trade war, shake markets, and place American agriculture exports—especially soybeans and corn—at risk.

By Aleah Harle, Farms.com Risk Management Intern

On April 2nd, President Donald Trump announced aggressive elevated tariff rates on nearly all U.S. trading partners, including an introduction of a 10% baseline tax on imports from all countries. Affecting over 180 nations, the new measures represent one of the most aggressive trade policy shifts in decades.

The most notable tariffs hikes include a 20% levy on goods from the EU, 46% on Vietnam, 32% on Taiwan, and an increase on Chinese imports to a total of 54%. Set to take effect on April 9th, these tariffs will raise U.S. trade barriers to levels not seen since the 1930’s. China has responded with a 34% tariff in retaliation on all U.S. imported goods commencing on April 10th and is the largest U.S. soybean buyer at over 20% of the total. The 2nd largest buyer is Europe and they are getting ready to announce countermeasures as well.

With the goal of revitalizing U.S. manufacturing, stimulating the domestic economy, and offsetting income tax from taxpayers through increased tariff revenue, the announcement has triggered widespread market uncertainty. Concerns over a potential recession – now estimated at a 60% probability – along with rising inflation and the threat of a global trade war have sent markets tumbling, wiping trillions of dollars off some of the world’s largest companies. Ultimately, consumers are left to bear the cost. Additionally, as part of the broader strategy is refinancing at lower rates The U.S. national debt comes due, amounting to just over $36 trillion.

Japan also factors risk, ranking the second-largest buyer of U.S. corn this year with 16.7% of total export sales with 108 million bushels still awaiting shipment, showing the fundamental risk at hand. With China having just announced a 34% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods, soybeans are now directly in the crosshairs – and if the EU follows suit, the consequences for American agriculture could escalate rapidly.

Graph of US Soybean Export Sales, Total Commitment (CMY)

Regardless of the tariffs if a global recession does happen ag commodities perform poor as it destroys demand. However, rising inflation could offset it as funds like to buy ag commodities as a hedge against that rising inflation like from 2020 to 2022.

Big hedge funds and investors got it wrong underestimating the impact of these tariffs that were much worse than expected. This is another global “Black Swan” event is like COVID of 2020, and the falling knife may not stop until next week when DOW hits bear market territory down over 20%. In March of 202 we fell over 38.8% in just 5 trading days!

For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit the Farms.com Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.

Video: Turning Plant Defense Into a Management Strategy

Turning Plant Defense Into a Management Strategy

Understanding how a plant responds to stress is one thing.

Using that knowledge to make better management decisions is another.

Systemic acquired resistance, or SAR, is the plant's more direct defense response. When stress or infection occurs, the plant begins signaling throughout its system and preparing defensive compounds.

But if we know that response exists, can we help prepare the plant before the stress arrives?

The answer starts with understanding what triggers the response and what the plant needs to carry it out.

The Trigger and the Fuel

Salicylic acid plays an important role in triggering the SAR pathway.

Think of it as turning the truck on.

The engine may be running, but it still needs fuel to do the work.

In this case, manganese plays an important role in supporting the enzyme systems involved in the plant's defensive response.

This makes manganese status an important part of the conversation. Whether a producer is using tissue testing, sap analysis, or simply scouting for visible deficiency symptoms, the goal is to make sure the plant has adequate manganese available.

Manganese is required in relatively small amounts, but that does not make its role small.

If the plant receives a signal to defend itself but lacks the nutrition needed to support that response, it may struggle to carry out the process efficiently.

The trigger matters.

The fuel matters too.

Prepare Before the Stress Arrives

The best time to think about stress management is before the plant is overwhelmed.

Once a crop is already struggling, management can quickly turn into a game of catch-up.

This is similar to nitrogen management. Once a plant becomes severely deficient, correcting the problem does not necessarily erase the time and yield potential already lost.

Plant defense can work the same way.

Low-rate, targeted approaches designed to support the SAR pathway may fit best ahead of an expected stress event rather than after significant damage has already occurred.

That requires producers to think about predictable stress.

We may not know exactly what the weather will do tomorrow, but we generally know summer heat is coming. We know certain field conditions increase disease pressure. We know a herbicide application can temporarily stress a crop as the plant processes the chemistry.

Even a properly timed and labeled herbicide application can create a temporary response in the plant.

That does not mean the herbicide is bad.

Weeds can create significantly more yield loss than the temporary stress caused by controlling them.

The question is not whether we should eliminate every stressor.

The question is whether we can better prepare the plant to manage necessary and predictable stress.

Not All Stress Is Bad

Stress is a normal part of plant growth.

A perfectly stress-free environment does not exist in the field.

In fact, some stress is necessary for normal plant development. A plant responds to wind, temperature, moisture, sunlight, and countless other environmental signals throughout the season.

The environment is stress.

The plant's job is to manage it.

Problems begin when the stress load becomes greater than the plant's ability to respond.

Extreme heat, drought, high salt concentrations, disease pressure, and even certain management practices can add to that load.

This is where understanding SAR becomes useful.

Instead of waiting until the plant is visibly struggling, producers can begin identifying periods when stress is likely and make management decisions around those windows.

ISR Starts With the Soil

While SAR is a more direct defense response, induced systemic resistance, or ISR, brings the conversation back to soil health.

The longevity of a farm is closely connected to the health of its soil.

Carbon plays a major role because it supports biological life within the soil. Bacteria, fungi, and other organisms interact with plant roots and influence how the plant grows, accesses nutrients, and prepares for stress.

This is why soil health cannot be reduced to one product or one application.

It is a system.

Keeping living plants in the field longer can support biological activity. Cover crops may fit some operations. Better water management can improve soil conditions.