Reduced cattle imports could raise US beef prices and boost Mexico production
According to research and market projections from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI-MU) at the University of Missouri, reduced feeder cattle imports from Mexico could lead to tighter U.S. cattle supplies, higher beef prices, increased Mexican beef production, and shifts in North American beef trade as producers and markets adjust to changing cattle flows.
The US and Mexico cattle industries remain closely connected through live animal trade. However, uncertainty continues following restrictions on Mexican cattle imports that were introduced after concerns about New World Screwworm (NWS). While some trade has resumed, questions remain about how much cattle will continue moving across the border in the coming years.
A recent market analysis examined what could happen if cattle import from Mexico recover to normal levels compared to a scenario where imports remain much lower than historical averages.
Under the lower-import scenario, the US would receive significantly fewer feeder cattle from Mexico between 2027 and 2031. As a result, US cattle supplies would become tighter, leading to fewer animals available for feeding and slaughter.
The reduced supply would likely increase feeder cattle prices, fed cattle prices, and beef prices across the United States. Beef processors and feedlots would face higher costs, while consumers could see higher prices at grocery stores.
The impact would not be limited to beef prices. Lower cattle supplies would also reduce total US beef production. With fewer animals entering the production system, processors would have less beef available for domestic and export markets.
Higher cattle prices would encourage US ranchers to expand their herds over time. Producers could retain more heifers to build cow numbers and increase future calf production. This response would help offset part of the cattle shortage, but rebuilding a herd takes time, meaning price pressure could remain in place for several years.
While the US would experience lower beef production, Mexico would see the opposite effect. Cattle that are no longer exported would stay within Mexico and move through domestic feeding and processing systems.
This would allow Mexican beef production to increase as more animals are finished and harvested locally. The transition could create temporary challenges because feedlots and processing facilities would need to handle greater volumes of cattle. These adjustments could add costs and reduce efficiency in the short term.
As Mexico increases beef production, beef exports from the country could rise. Additional beef supplies would help support shipments to international buyers, including the United States.
At the same time, the US could import more beef to help compensate for lower domestic production. The result would be a shift in trade patterns, with fewer live cattle crossing the border but more beef moving between the two countries.
Consumers in both countries could experience higher beef prices. In the United States, reduced cattle supplies would support higher prices throughout the supply chain. In Mexico, market adjustments and stronger export opportunities could also push prices higher over time.
The analysis suggests that the cattle industry in both countries would eventually adapt, but the transition would not be without costs. Total beef production across the two countries would be slightly lower than if live cattle trade fully recovered.
The findings highlight how important cross-border cattle trade has become for beef production efficiency in North America. Restricting cattle movements may shift where beef is produced and processed, while also influencing prices, trade flows, and producer decisions.
Although uncertainty remains regarding future cattle imports, the study shows that prolonged reductions in live cattle trade could reshape the beef sector on both sides of the border, creating higher prices, changing production patterns, and increasing reliance on beef trade instead of live animal movements.
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