Currently about 85 percent of U.S. potash comes from Canada
President Trump is trying to turn U.S. potash dependency away from Canada.
In a Truth Social post on Sept. 21, Trump announced he’s looking elsewhere for the input.
“The United States is working on a massive Deal with respect to the purchase of Potash from Belarus,” he wrote. “The pricing would be substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada, very good news for our Farmers and Ranchers.”
Currently, about 85 percent of American ag’s potash comes from Canada. Canada also supplies U.S. farmers with about 10 percent of their nitrogen needs, and about 20 percent of required sulfur, The Fertilizer Institute says.
Belarus prepared a shipment of potash to the U.S. earlier in the month.
“Right now, an opportunity has arisen to load a vessel, and we will definitely finish loading tomorrow, so that they can take it,” Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Sept. 11.
Belarus is ranked among the top five countries in potash production.
In 2024, Belarus was the fourth-ranked producer of potash globally, producing around 7 million metric tons annually, the United States Geological Survey says.
China currently buys upwards of 75 percent of Belarusian potash, leaving available supplies lacking for 2026.
“Even if we wanted to supply (potash) to other, Western markets, we simply do not have those volumes – everything is contracted,” Lukashenko told Chairman of the State Customs Committee of Belarus Vladimir Orlovsky on Sept. 21, according to the presidential press service.
Looking at an alternative potash supplier has its benefits, says Shanaka Anslem Perera, a writer and geopolitics analyst.
“There is a legitimate economic reason to explore it. Potash supplies potassium that crops need. Another competitive supplier could give American buyers more choice and put pressure on Canadian offers. That benefit does not require Belarus to replace Canada entirely,” he wrote on X.
American farmers receiving potash for a lower price than the Canadian supply could be challenging.
Belarus is a landlocked country and is sanctioned by the European Union, meaning products primarily travel through Russian ports.
“A Belarusian offer could still win. Freight does not prove it cannot. But Trump’s post gives no price basis, tonnage, delivery schedule or named buyer,” Perera, said in his X post. “For farmers, the promised saving becomes real when the fertilizer reaches them at a lower total cost.”
President Trump’s announcement caused movements in potash markets.
Shares of Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries and Intrepid Potash all dipped following the Truth Social post.