Weather analyst Eric Snodgrass says a historic El Niño is strengthening while extreme heat, drought concerns, and shifting storm patterns create new challenges for North American agriculture.
As harvest season approaches across much of North America, producers are facing a rapidly evolving weather pattern highlighted by the strongest El Niño event on record. According to Nutrien's Weekly Weather Intelligence Report from meteorologist Eric Snodgrass, the east-based El Niño continues to strengthen, with Niño Region 3 temperature anomalies nearing +3.5°C or 6.3°F and additional warming expected through late fall.
The developing climate pattern is already influencing weather across the United States. A strong ridge of high pressure is delivering several days of excessive heat through the central U.S., stretching from the Plains into portions of the Midwest.
Heat advisories have been issued across key agricultural areas including Kansas, Iowa, Illinois, and the Mid-Mississippi Valley, raising concerns about crop stress and the potential development of flash drought conditions.
At the same time, the Pacific Northwest is receiving cooler temperatures and much-needed rainfall after more than 40 days of wildfire activity. The improved moisture outlook is expected to provide relief to drought-stricken regions while helping reduce ongoing fire risks.
For producers in Texas, there may be a welcome source of precipitation on the horizon. Snodgrass notes that a weak tropical system moving along the southern edge of the ridge could bring beneficial rainfall to drought-affected areas near Houston before remnants track toward Dallas. While not expected to become a major storm, the system could provide valuable moisture at a time when many areas need it most.
The next two weeks are expected to bring a significant pattern shift. Through approximately September 7, heat will remain entrenched east of the Rockies while severe thunderstorms track along the northern edge of the heat dome through the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Ontario, and parts of the northeastern United States.
However, around September 10 to 12, forecast models indicate the ridge will rebuild in the western U.S. while a trough develops over eastern North America. This would bring cooler conditions to portions of the central U.S. along with renewed storm opportunities.
One area that continues to concern forecasters is a corridor extending from the central and southern Plains into the Ohio River Valley. Current forecasts suggest this region could receive very little rainfall during the next 10 days or longer, increasing concerns about moisture deficits heading into fall.
Looking beyond the immediate forecast, Snodgrass says the evolving El Niño pattern is expected to play a dominant role through the remainder of 2026 and into winter.
Seasonal outlooks suggest September temperatures may be more variable than monthly maps currently indicate, particularly after the expected mid-month pattern change. For autumn, an east-based El Niño typically supports wetter conditions across much of the United States while also reducing the likelihood of significant Atlantic hurricane activity.
Winter forecasts are becoming increasingly clear. The report suggests the southern tier of the United States, including California and the southern and central Plains, could experience a wetter-than-normal winter pattern. Such conditions would provide an important opportunity for water recharge and reservoir recovery in drought-affected western regions. Meanwhile, northern areas may experience generally milder temperatures, although periodic cold outbreaks remain possible.
South American producers are also watching closely. Early planting rains in Brazil's Cerrado region are expected to arrive intermittently rather than in a consistent pattern, while excessive rainfall and flooding could emerge as a concern across southern growing regions later in the season.
For farmers across North America, the key takeaway is that weather risks remain highly localized. Heat and flash drought concerns will dominate parts of the central U.S. during the next week, while beneficial rainfall opportunities emerge for portions of Texas and the Pacific Northwest.
Longer term, the strengthening El Niño appears increasingly likely to shape crop conditions, moisture availability, and production outlooks through fall and winter.
As producers make harvest and marketing decisions in the coming months, understanding how this record-setting El Niño influences regional weather patterns will be critical to managing risk and maximizing opportunities.
Photo Credit: USDA Drought Monitor