Tariff cut offers relief but soybeans stay under 13 percent duty
China confirmed it will suspend some retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural imports following last week’s meeting between both nations’ leaders. The decision, announced by the State Council’s tariff commission, will remove duties of up to 15% on select U.S. farm goods beginning November 10. However, a 13% tariff will continue to apply to soybean imports, leaving U.S. shipments less competitive compared to Brazilian alternatives.
Traders and market analysts said the tariff change offers limited relief. “The tariff cut nonetheless leaves Chinese buyers of U.S. soybeans facing tariffs of 13%, a cost traders said makes U.S. shipments still too expensive for commercial buyers, compared to Brazilian alternatives,” said one trader at an international trading company. “We don’t expect any demand from China to return to the U.S. market with this change, Brazil is cheaper than the United States and even non-Chinese buyers are taking Brazilian cargoes.”
The meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in South Korea eased concerns of escalating trade tensions that have disrupted global supply chains. The White House stated that China had agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025 and 25 million tons annually over the next three years. However, Beijing has yet to confirm these figures, leaving traders watching for concrete purchases.
Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Chinese importers have increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans. Lower South American prices have led buyers to book 20 cargoes for December and spring shipments. Brazilian beans now sell at a premium of $2.25–$2.30 per bushel, cheaper than U.S. Gulf offers.
Kansas State University economist Allen Featherstone cautioned that verifying these sales will be difficult amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed USDA export data. Without official reports, analysts must rely on private tracking, adding uncertainty to already volatile markets.
Read the related article: China soybean deal offers limited relief
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