Processing constraints and chick supply challenges may slow future production
The U.S. chicken industry has experienced steady growth for decades, driven by strong consumer demand and major gains in production efficiency. However, new challenges are emerging that could slow this long-running growth trend.
According to a report from CoBank Knowledge Exchange, broiler production remains strong in the near term, but opportunities to increase output are becoming more limited. High construction costs, labor shortages, and stricter local regulations have slowed the development of new poultry processing plants. This limits the industry’s ability to expand processing capacity.
Another concern is the declining availability of chicks. Genetic improvements over the past two decades have focused on increasing meat yield and feed efficiency rather than hatchability. As a result, fewer chicks are available to raise, even though each bird now produces more meat. While this approach has improved efficiency, it also limits how much total production can grow.
U.S. chicken consumption continues to rise. Data from USDA shows that per capita chicken consumption has increased significantly since the mid-1990s and is expected to grow further by 2030. Chicken consumption now exceeds beef and pork by a wide margin.
To meet demand, processors have increasingly turned to value-added and further processed products such as nuggets, tenders, and sandwiches.
“The potential long-term challenge becomes how big is too big for birds on the processing line, and what will drive consumer preferences for chicken products into 2030 and beyond,” said Brian Earnest, lead animal protein economist with CoBank.
“In the short-term, there has been a growing interest in secondary processing or the value-add segment. That’s helping chicken producers meet increased consumer demand for further processed and flavor-enhanced items like tenders, nuggets and sandwiches. But it’s not necessarily a sustainable or long-term approach to consistently increase overall production volume,” said Earnest.
Without new plants or more chicks entering the system, future growth will depend on technology, flexibility, and improved line speed efficiency. While demand remains strong, the industry may need new strategies to support long-term expansion.
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