Post\-election policy shifts, China demand and heavy fund selling add uncertainty for U.S. farmers.
U.S. grain markets are heading into a potentially important week, with farmers and traders watching to see whether the U.S. Department of Agriculture changes its surprisingly large October corn yield estimate.
The November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report is scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 10 at noon ET, alongside USDA's latest Crop Production report.
The November 6 edition of the Farms.com Risk Management Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast, titled "Will USDA 'save the day' for corn?" examined that question as well as the aftermath of the U.S. midterm elections, significant fund liquidation across agricultural commodities, China-U.S. agricultural trade, ethanol demand, weakening crude oil prices, South American weather and another difficult week for lean hog futures.
Corn growers waiting for USDA
Farms.com Risk Management chief commodity strategist Moe Agostino, and Abhinesh Gopal, head of commodity research, said the USDA surprised the market in October when it raised its forecast for the 2026 U.S. corn yield to 181.2 bushels per acre, up 2.4 bushels from its previous forecast.
The agency projected a crop of approximately 16 billion bushels, which, if realized, would be the second-largest U.S. corn crop on record.
Soybean production was forecast at a record 4.56 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.1 bushels per acre.
Those numbers have become important reference points heading into November.
Agostino noted that pre-report estimates were pointing toward a modest reduction in corn yield, with an average expectation around 180.4 bushels per acre, although estimates varied widely.
That range illustrates one of the biggest challenges facing the corn market: uncertainty over the actual size of the crop.
Agostino and Gopal were particularly skeptical that production in several major Corn Belt states support USDA's October national yield estimate. They argued that reported field experience in states including Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska and Ohio raises questions about whether USDA ultimately needs to make a larger adjustment.
USDA says its Crop Production estimate incorporates multiple sources of information, including producer surveys, satellite imagery, field observations, Farm Service Agency acreage data and crop insurance information.
The definitive next piece of information arrives Nov. 10. when USDA confirms the estimates in the November WASDE report.
Funds turn increasingly bearish
The USDA numbers arrive as speculative money has been moving away from agricultural commodities.
The podcast highlighted heavy selling across corn, soybeans, soybean meal, canola and other grain and oilseed markets.
That represents a significant change from late summer, when the Agostino said managed money held a record large combined long position across agricultural futures.
For corn farmers, the worry is that another bearish USDA report, or simply a report without enough bullish news, could give funds little incentive to return to the market.
The same concern exists for soybeans.
The podcast argued there could be downside risk if USDA increases its soybean yield estimate while global production prospects remain strong.
For producers, the significance goes well beyond futures traders.
Corn and soybean prices established through U.S. markets have implications for farm returns across North America, including Ontario and Western Canada.
Persistent weakness in Chicago futures can therefore pressure Canadian prices as well, although exchange rates and local basis levels can alter the actual price received by individual producers.
Midterm elections add another uncertainty
Agriculture is also assessing a dramatically different political landscape following the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections.
Democrats have secured control of both the House of Representatives and Senate, changing the balance of power in Washington beginning with the next Congress.
For agriculture, the consequences could reach from the next farm bill to biofuel policy, trade and agricultural committee leadership.
One analysis of the post-election farm policy landscape says Democratic control will reset negotiations involving issues including nutrition programs, Proposition 12, mandatory country-of-origin labelling and "year-round E15". President Donald Trump, however, retains veto authority, meaning major legislation would still require a workable bipartisan path.
A divided government increases the possibility of legislative gridlock, which could complicate progress on both a new farm bill and policies affecting ethanol.
For farmers, the key issue may be less about which party controls Congress and more about whether policymakers can find enough common ground to move major agricultural legislation forward.
Could ships provide the next big market for corn?
Amid the bearish discussion, the podcast identified an intriguing longer-term demand opportunity for corn: marine fuel.
The concept is moving beyond the theoretical stage.
The National Corn Growers Association says ships designed to operate on methanol can also use ethanol without modification. On Sept. 28, Maersk demonstrated the concept by bunkering a vessel in Houston with 100 per cent U.S. corn ethanol.
The potential market could become significant.
The National Corn Growers Association estimates that if the methanol-capable ships already operating today ran fully on ethanol, they could consume up to two billion gallons of ethanol annually, equivalent to approximately 680 million bushels of corn.
Looking further ahead, other industry estimates suggest that capturing just five per cent of the global marine fuel market could generate four to five billion gallons of additional ethanol demand, potentially representing about 1.5 billion bushels of corn.
There are considerable hurdles before those numbers become reality.
The National Corn Growers Association says the International Maritime Organization has approved a carbon score for Brazilian second-crop corn ethanol but has not yet approved the U.S. score proposal. Recognition of an appropriate carbon score is considered important if American ethanol is to compete in international shipping.
Even so, a large new end market would be welcome news for growers if U.S. corn supplies remain abundant.
China sends a positive signal on wheat and sorghum
China remains another piece of the demand puzzle.
Trade relations between Washington and Beijing remain uncertain, but U.S. grain exporters received some encouraging news on Nov. 6.
Illinois-based Hang Tung Resources signed agreements worth approximately US$600 million for U.S. sorghum and wheat with Chinese buyers during the China International Import Expo in Shanghai.
The announcement is significant, but producers should distinguish agreements from completed export shipments.
The total value covers both wheat and sorghum, while specific sorghum volumes and delivery schedules have not been disclosed. The National Sorghum Producers welcomed the development while emphasizing the importance of turning agreements into actual purchases and shipments.
That distinction matters because China's agricultural purchasing intentions remain uncertain.
The podcast hosts suggested that political changes in Washington could alter the leverage surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations. Ultimately, however, additional Chinese purchases will depend on commercial economics as well as trade policy.
Any substantial increase in confirmed Chinese purchases of U.S. corn, soybeans, wheat or sorghum could improve market sentiment at a time when growers are looking for new sources of demand.
Weather adds another layer to soybean outlook
Weather is also entering the equation.
In the U.S., the podcast identified soil moisture as a concern in portions of the Midwest heading into the end of the growing season and fall fieldwork.
USDA continues to track harvesting progress, field conditions and soil moisture in its weekly Crop Progress reports through November.
Meanwhile, the podcast pointed to increasing rainfall prospects across major South American soybean areas.
A favourable start to Brazil's growing season could add pressure to soybean prices if traders become increasingly confident in another large South American crop.
Agostino's longer-range outlook remained less certain, making Brazilian rainfall and crop development important factors for soybean producers to follow through the final weeks of 2026 and into 2027.
Hogs remain under pressure
Grains aren't the only agricultural markets struggling.
The podcast highlighted another difficult week for lean hog futures, which moved to new contract lows.
The hosts see the current weakness primarily as a "demand problem" rather than simply an issue of hog supplies.
Their outlook was decidedly bearish, with the hosts warning producers about the financial exposure of leaving too much near-term production unprotected.
They also made a broader argument that the pork industry needs to examine how it markets products to younger consumers, including greater emphasis on flavour, product choices and different price points.
The comparison made during the podcast to the severe hog-market downturn of 1998 is an opinion and risk scenario, rather than a prediction producers should treat as certain.
But the message behind it is important: persistent demand weakness deserves close attention when producers are making marketing and risk-management decisions.
A market searching for its next catalyst
Across commodities, one theme connected much of the Nov. 6 Ag Commodity Corner+ discussion: the market needs a catalyst.
For corn, that could come from a meaningful reduction in USDA's yield estimate or stronger export demand.
For soybeans, Chinese demand must be weighed against the possibility of a large South American crop.
For ethanol, maritime shipping offers an intriguing new demand opportunity, but one that will require regulatory progress and commercial adoption before it becomes a major market for U.S. corn.
Meanwhile, changing political control in Washington introduces new questions about farm legislation, E15 and trade policy.
The first test arrives Tuesday with the USDA's November WASDE and Crop Production reports.
For corn growers who were surprised by USDA's 181.2-bushel October yield estimate, the biggest question will be whether November finally brings the adjustment they have been waiting for.
Watch the November 6 edition of the Farms.com Risk Management Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast, titled "Will USDA 'save the day' for corn?" below.