Harvest delays across the Midwest and increasing corn stocks added market uncertainty ahead of January’s final USDA production estimates.
Grain and oilseed markets posted mixed results during the week ending October 9, 2026, as traders evaluated larger-than-expected U.S. corn production estimates, harvest delays, changing fund positions and potential weather risks in South America.
Corn prices declined sharply, while soybeans gained, and cattle futures rebounded. Wheat remained under pressure from weakness in the corn market.
During the October 9 episode of the Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast, titled, "USDA Too High On 2026 Crop Yields + 26 U.S. Harvest from Hell!", hosted by Moe Agostino, chief commodity strategist with Farms.com Risk Management, the discussion focused on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) October crop report and ongoing harvest difficulties across the Midwest.
The USDA raised its projected U.S. corn yield to 181.2 bushels per acre, up from 178.5 bushels in September and above the trade estimate of 177.7 bushels. Soybean yields were estimated at 53.1 bushels per acre, slightly higher than the previous month's 52.8 bushels and market expectations. The larger corn estimates increased concerns about supplies and weighed on prices.
U.S. corn ending stocks reached 1.849 billion bushels, lifting the stocks-to-use ratio from 9.7% to approximately 11.3%, according to the podcast discussion.
Global corn ending stocks also increased to 280.44 million metric tons, exceeding trade expectations of 273.8 million metric tons. Agostino characterized the report as bearish for corn, while noting that the estimates could change as more harvest data becomes available.
Corn futures fell 18 cents during the week, testing the 200-day moving average near $4.74 per bushel. Soybeans advanced 13 cents, supported partly by stronger soybean meal prices.
Wheat futures declined, while lean hogs reached new contract lows amid weak domestic demand and lower pork exports. Cattle futures, meanwhile, recorded a strong rebound.
Agostino questioned whether the USDA's yield projections fully reflected challenging growing conditions. Parts of the Midwest experienced excessive summer heat, while Iowa, Nebraska and other areas received substantial rainfall during August and September.
Wet fields and additional storm systems threatened to delay harvesting. As of early October, corn harvest progress remained limited in several major producing states, including Iowa, where only 7% of the crop had been harvested.
The discussion also examined international market factors. Argentina's 2025-26 corn production estimate increased to 64 million metric tons, while its soybean estimate declined slightly to 49.3 million metric tons.
Agostino highlighted the potential influence of El Niño-related dryness in Brazil, where developing weather conditions could affect soybean production and the subsequent safrinha corn crop. Brazil’s second corn crop is known as the safrinha, it has become the country’s dominant corn-producing season, accounting for an estimated 70% to 80% of total output.
Looking ahead, potential Chinese purchases of U.S. corn, South American weather and competition for acreage in 2027 could influence market direction.
Agostino emphasized that January's final USDA crop report may provide greater clarity on actual U.S. yields and production.
Watch the USDA Too High On 2026 Crop Yields + 26 U.S. Harvest from Hell! podcast below.