Stronger yields improve Canada’s 2026-27 pulse outlook as pea and lentil stocks climb above earlier estimates
Agriculture Canada has increased its projected 2026-27 ending stocks for dry peas and lentils following stronger production estimates in its latest monthly supply and demand update.
The updated forecast raised expected dry pea ending stocks by 200,000 tonnes from the previous month, bringing the total to 810,000 tonnes. Although higher than earlier projections, the figure remains below the 990,000 tonnes recorded in the previous marketing year.
Lentil ending stocks were also increased by 300,000 tonnes to 1.54 million tonnes, compared with 1.415 million tonnes estimated for 2025-26.
The revised outlook puts the dry pea stocks-to-use ratio at 24% for 2026-27. This is lower than the previous year’s 29% but above the 17% recorded in 2024-25.
Lentils are expected to have a stocks-to-use ratio of 59%, slightly higher than 55% in 2025-26 and significantly above the 26% reported two years earlier.
For dry peas, Agriculture Canada slightly reduced its seeded acreage estimate to just over 3 million acres, reflecting updated acreage data from Statistics Canada. However, improved yield expectations helped offset the smaller planted area. The yield forecast increased to 39 bushels per acre from 36 bushels, raising projected production to 3.15 million tonnes from the previous estimate of 2.95 million tonnes.
Total dry pea supplies were also adjusted upward to 4.16 million tonnes, while export expectations remained unchanged at 2.7 million tonnes.
For lentils, seeded acreage was lowered to 3.9 million acres from 4.14 million acres in June and 4.38 million acres in 2025-26. Despite the acreage reduction, a higher yield forecast of about 1,517 pounds per acre increased projected production to 2.65 million tonnes.
Total lentil supplies were revised to 4.14 million tonnes, while exports remained steady at 2.3 million tonnes.
Agriculture Canada maintained its average new-crop price forecasts at $310 per tonne for peas and $520 per tonne for lentils.