The President’s plan to facilitate record imports of beef will have a significant impact on farmers and ranchers who are rebuilding their herds devastated by drought. American Farm Bureau Federation economists analyzed the potential consequences of increased imports in the latest Farm Bureau Intel. Also today, Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall sent a letter to President Trump urging him to reconsider his plan to flood the market with foreign beef.
President Trump announced last week that he plans to import up to 300,000 metric tons of beef over a 90-day period in an attempt to ease record-high ground beef prices. But the timing could work against ranchers who are deciding whether to expand their herds. It’s estimated that 70% of spring-born calves are sold between September and November, which fall within the increased import window. A glut of foreign raised beef could drive down prices paid to ranchers at a time when critical farm business decisions are made.
Falling prices paid to farmers would be the latest blow to a sector that just recently began a fragile recovery. AFBF economists write, “The reason for the historically small beef cow herd is multifaceted. First, drought conditions across much of the U.S. has forced ranchers to liquidate cattle or put cattle on feed because of the lack of homegrown forage. Second, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service’s cost and return data, input costs for cow-calf producers, i.e., ranchers who maintain a herd of beef cows for breeding purposes, reached a record high of $1,762 per head in 2025. Nearly every line item for cow-calf operators is more expensive today than ever before. Since 2020, prior to the most recent inflationary environment, production costs are up more than $400 per head, or nearly 30%.”
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