By Josh Maples
Tight cattle supplies over the past few years are leading to tight beef supplies now and the latest USDA report revised 2026 and 2027 production estimates lower again. USDA’s October WASDE report lowered the beef production forecasts for both 2026 and 2027. The 2026 estimate was cut 75 million pounds to 24.8 billion pounds, which would be about 4.6 percent below 2025 and the smallest annual total since 2015.
The 2027 forecast was reduced 160 million pounds to 24.7 billion pounds which would be about a half percent below the 2026 estimate. The October report was the eighth consecutive month USDA has lowered the 2026 beef production forecast, which now sits about one billion pounds lower than the estimate at the start of 2026.
The lower 2026 estimate is driven by lower expected steer and heifer slaughter and lighter carcass weights in the second half, which more than offset slightly higher expected cow slaughter. For 2027, USDA cited lighter dressed weights and slower feedlot marketings early in the year, which follows directly from the lower feedlot placement from the cattle on feed reports. Placements have run below a year ago in ten of the past twelve months.
Source : osu.edu