By Don Shurley
USDA’s August 2026 monthly crop production and supply and demand estimates were mixed news and should likely have little impact on the market. But anyway, the focus seems to increasingly be on the weather and crop conditions.
Prices (December futures) have been in a good uptrend over the past 3 weeks with only 1 little hint of a hick-up during that time. We’ve been at 80+¢ for most of the time dating back to early July.
There would seem to be little reason to stop the train. But let’s remember what got us here—prices are based on expectations and then whether or not those expectations are realized. Price has improved 8¢ since the most recent lows. Why? In part, the expectations are that the U.S. crop will decline and global demand will improve (and hopefully U.S. exports as well).
In this week’s August Crop Production report:
- 2026 acres planted was increased 620,000 acres from the July estimate. This will continue to be revised.
- Acres were increased in 13 of 17 states.
- Expected U.S. average yield was lowered 8½% from the July estimate.
- The 2026 crop is now estimated at 13.61 million bales—down from the July estimate and last year.
Source : ufl.edu