By Faith Parum
Key Takeaways
- Two recent USDA reports were followed by some of the largest single-day declines in December corn futures during 2026, emphasizing estimates’ impacts on commodity prices.
- USDA corrected its September corn production estimates after identifying a processing error that affected plant populations, ear counts, yields and production in Kansas and Nebraska.
- The correction raised September’s national production forecast by 28.4 million bushels, shrinking the reported September-to-October production increase by about 12%.
- Accurate, timely USDA estimates are essential to market transparency, price discovery and the marketing decisions farmers make throughout the year.
USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) announced corrections to its September 2026 Crop Production report on Oct. 23 following concerns about differences between its September and October corn estimates. In a follow-up notice on Oct. 24, NASS explained that incorrect acreage weights had been used to combine irrigated and non-irrigated corn observations in Kansas and Nebraska. The error affected September plant populations and ear counts, resulting in revisions to state-level yields and production, as well as national estimates and 10-state objective-yield averages. The agency corrected the affected September estimates, reviewed its October calculations and confirmed that October forecasts remain unchanged.
USDA production estimates give farmers, grain buyers and other market participants a common source of information used for price discovery, marketing and risk management. Unfortunately, revisions, especially market-moving revisions, undermine trust in the accuracy of the reported data and may discourage future participation in these critical surveys.
Market Surprises Heighten Concerns
Two recent USDA reports were followed by some of the largest single-day declines in December corn futures during 2026. On Sept. 30, December corn futures declined 21.25 cents per bushel after USDA reported Sept. 1 corn stocks of 2.095 billion bushels, above market expectations of approximately 1.924 billion bushels. On Oct. 9, futures declined another 20.5 cents after USDA raised its national corn yield forecast to 181.2 bushels per acre, compared with market expectations near 177.7 bushels.
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