October’s WASDE report reduced beef production estimates for both this year and next. Production for this year was forecast at 24.8 million pounds. Next year was pegged at 24.7 million pounds. Josh Maples of Mississippi State University said it was the eighth consecutive month USDA had lowered the production forecast for this year. It is now projected to be 4.6% below last year and the smallest in 11 years. Production reached a peak of more than 28 billion pounds in 2022. Carcass weights are heavier this year, up 2.3% year-to-date according, to the Daily Livestock Report, but heavier weights haven’t offset lower slaughter numbers. The Daily Livestock Report said year-to-date federally inspected slaughter is off 7.2% compared to last year. The recent opening of the Mexican border to cattle imports could affect production projections moving forward, but while it could add to supply, any effect would likely be minimal.
Figure 4. U.S. Beef Production
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